Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit

-edited

This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it's primarily about Corbyn.

Major Disconnect

A friend of mind writes "I saw a time series that shows that every single week of the year a majority in the UK would REMAIN if there were another referendum. It was a small majority, but a consistent one. It is therefore perplexing how a party that is not going to just deliver Brexit, but a hard Brexit is polling this well. There is a major disconnect."

Why is Johnson Polling So Well?

Here is my friend's implied question: Why is Johnson polling so well?

For starters Johnson isn't going to deliver a hard Brexit. It will be a negotiated Brexit. A withdrawal agreement will be signed. And despite Johnson's rhetoric, I suspect that the WTO arrangement will be managed, and far better than the Farage clan will have you believe.

I took a close look inside some of the recent polls and there are some interesting trends that explain what's going on.

Brexit Fading as an Issue

Brexit is fading as an issue, especially among women. Only 25% of women have Brexit as their number one issue.

And I am quite surprised by this: Only 17.1% of 18-24 year-olds have Brexit as their top issue.

Fewer and fewer believe the nonsense about "no deal" primarily because Johnson will deliver a deal.

Gender Gap Part One

40.6% of men will vote Tory but only 26% of women in the latest Survation poll.

Check out the undecideds! Only 10% of men are undecided vs a whopping 23.5% of women.

Female uncertainty is not just in the Survation poll.

Gender Gap Part Two

In the latest YouGov poll 21% of females are undecided but only 13% of men.

Is female voting uncertainty a normal state of affairs? I have not investigated enough to know.

Voting Intention Undecideds Removed

Note once again the male-female divergence.

A whopping 47.7% of men are likely to vote for Boris Johnson vs only 36.1% of women.

Note London and the whopping 58.8% Tory vote in the South. I will come back to London in a moment.

Referendum on Corbyn

My key idea to answer my friend's question is that the election has morphed into a referendum on Corbyn and away from a referendum on Brexit.

It's not that Johnson is very popular. Rather, Corbyn is exceptionally unpopular.

Not a Single Age Group Likes Corbyn

Spotlight London

London is the key area in England where Remainers and socialists rate to do well. Liberals abound in London just like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York.

Yet even in London, Labour is struggling.

The current spread of Labour over the Tories is 1 percentage point. Survation has it at 3 percentage points.

In 2017 the spread was a 21.4 percentage points.

Labour is struggling mightily even in London, and even with tactical voting.

What's happening?

It should be easy to figure out: Business owners are scared to death of Corbyn.

In Touch or Out of Touch?

For those who have Brexit as the key issue, Jeremy Corbyn ranks dead last and Johnson first.

Who Would Make the Best Prime Minister

That's a pretty amazing poll.

A whopping 51.9% of men and 42.0% of women believe johnson would make the best Prime Minister!

Also note that Jo Swinson tops Jeremy Corbyn among women and age groups 55-64 and 65-74.

Not even 18-24 year-olds prefer Corbyn. The only demographic in which Corbyn leads is 25-34 year-olds.

Great Nationalization Backlash

The Telegraph reports Investors vow to fight Corbyn’s plans to seize British businesses

If you were wondering why Labour is losing ground in UK election polls, there it is, in spades.

The article did not even mention Corbyn’s plan to force homeowners to sell homes to renters at a government specified price.

This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it's primarily about Corbyn and his extreme socialist policies!

Corbyn is rightfully getting clobbered.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (33)
No. 1-13
Yancey_Ward
Yancey_Ward

So why didn't Labour dump Corbyn?

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

Lifetime Labour voter here, but it will be a cold day in Hell when I vote for this mob.

I remember the 70s and 80s when people like Corbyn, McDonald, et al were responsible for the rise of Thatcher and the eventual destruction of our manufacturing base, civil society and everything worth having . Problem is, Labour is now infested with people who either weren't born then, or worse, view it as a golden age for the proletariat before the rise of common sense in the party that made it electable again.

Bastiat
Bastiat

Exactly! For most non-socialist (and non-avid) remainers, like myself, stopping Corbyn trumps Brexit.

readunzreview
readunzreview

The real reason for the onslaught against Corybn is his support for the Palestinians. If it weren't for that he would be the next Prime Minister.

Guinny_Ire
Guinny_Ire

Less about one being popular and more about one being unpopular. That sounds so damn familiar.....

Anda
Anda

Clearly a case of phobophobia.

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

In my mind, if the election is about socialism, then the Corbyn campaign works right. It is what he wants, to present the whole thing as a binary choice where his socialism is one of the two choices.

In contrast, Johnson wants it to be a Brexit election. This is why he called it in the first place (as Mish documented in detail). In a Brexit election, the binary choice would be a Johnson Brexit vs something else.

My opinion is somewhere in the middle... The poll numbers seem to show that both squeezes are working. Johnson has a large advantage, of course. Still, if this kind of trend continues, then the result can be tight in the end.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Still, if this kind of trend continues, then the result can be tight in the end."

If this kind of trend continues it will be the mother of all landslides with Labour at the bottom of the rubble

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

It would be really surprising if the bad polls of Corbyn were about socialism. He was a socialist all his life and he had much better numbers in the past. No, I think his bad polls are exactly about Brexit, about his endless triangulation and ambiguity. If the Brexit topic is suppressed, that is good for him. Might not be enough though.

Scooot
Scooot

I’m not sure I could have heard this properly, but on the TV debate I thought Mr Corbyn just said he was going to fund his crackpot 4 day week by increased productivity!

Mish
Mish

Editor

Watching the Debate About half-through Just finished with Brexit

Hardly anything IMO Both side will likely claim victory but I see little reason for minds to change

Appearances: Johnson looks happy and smiling. Corbyn looks miserable

abend237-04
abend237-04

"Nothing clears the mind like being shot at and missed." Winston Churchill

I think Corbyn has convinced everyone in the UK that he's a property-taker, shooting at them with socialism...