GDPNow 1st Quarter Estimate Dips to 1.2%, FRBNY Nowcast 3.1%: One Model is Seriously Wrong

The Atlanta Fed GDPNOw Model for 1st quarter GDP dipped once again today and now sits at 1.2% as of March 9.

by Mish

Meanwhile, the FRBNY Nowcast Model sits at a robust 3.1%. as of March 3.

The spread is just shy of two full percentage points. One or both of these models are seriously wrong.

In five weeks, the GDP Now Model shed 2.2 percentage points in growth estimates.

GDPNow Evolution

Even if the difference between GDPNow and Nowcast splits down the middle, they will both be about 1 full percentage point off the mark.

However, a Nowcast update comes out tomorrow and I expect it to dip at least a fair amount.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock