GDPNow 3rd Quarter Forecast Dips to 3%; Nowcast Postponed, I Take a Stab

It’s curious the New York Fed has a blackout on its GDP Model but the Atlanta Fed doesn’t.

by Mish

Let’s take a look at the latest GDPNow and I will follow up with a guess at what the Nowcast would have been.

We find the latter next Friday.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.0 percent on September 15, down from 3.3 percent on September 9. The forecast of third-quarter real consumer spending growth declined from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of third-quarter real government spending growth declined from 1.3 percent to 0.8 percent after Tuesday’s Monthly Treasury Statement from the U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service.

FRBNY Nowcast

The New York Fed reports …

We will not be publishing our report on September 16 since the date falls during an FOMC blackout period. Reporting will resume on September 23.September 9, 2016: Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% and 1.7% for 2016:Q3 and 2016:Q4, respectively.
  • News from this week’s data releases was small and mixed, having overall a negligible effect on the nowcast.
  • Lower than expected inventories and higher than expected job openings had a small positive effect on the nowcast, while negative news came from ISM nonmanufacturing.

Mish Nowcast Guess

The economic reports have been generally miserable. But if we presume the drop in GDPNow flows through in a similar fashion to the Nowcast, we would have a Nowcast of something like 2.5% for third quarter and 1.5% for fourth quarter.

My guess is 2.4% and 1.4% respectively. Bear in mind reports next week will influence those numbers. However, we will be able to reconstruct my estimates from actuals thanks to Nowcast timeline details.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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