GDPNow Forecast Drops Slightly to 4.0%: Real Final Sales Estimate is 3.3%

The GDPNow forecast is 4.0, down from 4.1% on May 1.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Forecast inched slightly lower on May 3.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 4.0 percent on May 3, down from 4.1 percent on May 1. After yesterday's light vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the nowcasts for second-quarter real consumer spending growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 3.3 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. The nowcasts inched back up to 3.1 percent and 8.7 percent after this morning's international trade release from the BEA and U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's manufacturing release from the Census Bureau.

Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Blue Chip Financial Forecasts

I added a highlight in Yellow regarding the Blue Chip range.

I asked Pat Higgins for an explanation and he responded: "Each survey is published once a month (Blue Chip Financial Forecasts on the 1st Blue Chip Economic Indicators on the 10th). In the chart, the two sets of forecasts are combined. Also in the chart, the forecasts are aligned with the survey dates, which occur before the publication dates. There were 54 and 45 forecasters in the two surveys, respectively."

Assuming 4.0% is the over-under line, I am sticking with my "way under" estimate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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