GDPNow Forecast Sinks on ISM and Construction Reports

The GDPNow forecast fell to 1.7% on September 3 following weak construction and ISM reports.

As of September 3, the GDPNow Forecast is 1.7%.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on September 3, down from 2.0 percent on August 30. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management, and this morning's construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private fixed investment growth decreased from 3.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively.

The forecast fell from from 2.3% on August 26 to 2.0% on August 30, then to 1.7% on September 3.

I commented on the ISM numbers in US Manufacturing Recession Begins: ISM Contracts First Time in 3 Years.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (5)
No. 1-5
lol
lol

Again driven entirely (100%)by govt (borrowing)spending,Trump (like Obama)believe borrowing your way to growth is the answer........until it's not!

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Greatest economy ever. $1 Trillion+ in deficit spending and this is all we get.

numike
numike

But who cares the stock market is up up up!!

bradw2k
bradw2k

All the numbers converging on zero. Pretty soon 30-year Treasury paying 0.5% is going to look like a very nice investment ... 100% backed by the debt-slave US taxpayers.

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

I'm tired of winning easy trade wars. Can we stop now?