GDPNow Forecast Slips Slightly Despite Retail Sales Rebound

Mike Mish Shedlock

Despite a rebound in retail Sales the GDPNow forecast slips to 1.9 percent. Real final sales are 0.9 percent.

Those expecting today's retail sales bounce would drive up GDP estimates thought incorrectly. The GDPNow Forecast dipped slightly today.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 1.9 Percent - April 16, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 1.9 percent on April 16, down from 2.0 percent on April 10. The nowcast for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth declined from 1.1 percent to 0.9 percent after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau.

For a recap of the retail sales report, please see Retail Sales Bounce, Led by Autos.

The failure of the model to rise today indicates the model expected an even bigger retail sales forecast than too place.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (2)
No. 1-2

Goldiloks economy,1 trillion straight quarters of 2% gdp growth "rate",unemployment "rate" headed to zero maybe even negative!!!1.2 billion straight months of positive "job"growth.1.8 trillion straight in the red in 2018 and wait for it ...3 trillion in red ink in 2019 WTF!!!!


Another quarter of moderate 2% growth. Expect several more provided Trump doesn't start a trade war. Tax cuts will help a bit, at the cost of increasing the deficit significantly. Sadly, the economy won’t grow enough to make up for the tax cuts.

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