GDPNow Forecast Up Huge on Positive Economic Data
The Now York Fed updates its Nowcast Forecast on Fridays. Its next update is November 29.
The Atlanta Fed updates its GDPNow Forecast following significant economic reports.
It did so today.
Latest forecast: 1.7 percent — November 27, 2019
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 1.7 percent on November 27, up from 0.4 percent on November 19. After this morning's and yesterday's data releases from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.7 percent and -3.0 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and -1.7 percent, respectively, and the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.20 percentage points to 0.39 percentage points.
1.3 Percentage Point Jump
The GDPNow forecast jumped a whopping 1.3 percentage points since the forecast on November 19, split into several pieces as the chart shows.
Some of the move is related to a huge jump in military spending as noted today in Durable Goods Orders Jump on Defense Spending.
The end of the GM strike will also have a positive impact.
We hear from Nowcast on Friday and GDPNow again on Monday.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock