GDPNow Initial Estimate of 1st-Quarter GDP: 0.3 Percent

-edited

The GDPNow initial forecast for 1st-quarter 2019 GDP is a minuscule 0.3%.

Once again we see a huge discrepancy between the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model and the New York Fed Nowcast Model for first-quarter GDP.

The former is 0.3%, the latter 2.26%.

Pat Higgins at GDP now writes: "The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 0.3 percent on March 1. The initial estimate of fourth-quarter real GDP growth released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on February 28 was 2.6 percent, 0.8 percentage points above the final GDPNow model nowcast released the previous day."

A check of the GFPNow spreadsheet has first quarter real final sales at 0.9%. That is the true bottom line estimate of the economy. The model estimates Change in Private Inventory (CIPI) at -0.6%. Inventories net to zero over time.

I will start a spreadsheet comparing GDPNow to Nowcast in a couple weeks. One data point does not make for a good graph.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (4)
No. 1-4
Realist
Realist

The US economy is slowing. The first quarter will be weak. I still expect 2% growth for the year.

RobinBanks
RobinBanks

If you need more than one data point looking at the GDP numbers for Germany, Italy, France, UK, Canada,China etc. Winter is coming.

shamrock
shamrock

Strange, gold is continuing to drop like the rock that it is.

lol
lol

DC borrowing 2 trillion (at least)this year and wait for it......3 TRILLION next year to drive 1-2% dept generated "growth".Obviously all that borrowed/printed cash not find it's way into the private sector.Which means MASSIVE TAX INCREASES comin to support all those gov't checks!!!!