GDPNow ISM Bounce Fades: Forecast Dips to 3.8%, Nowcast Remains 2.8%

Volatility remains the name of the game for GDPNow. Nonvolatility is the game for the New York Fed Nowcast.

GDPNow Latest Forecast: 3.8% - July 6, 2018

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2018 is 3.8 percent on July 6, down from 4.1 percent on July 2. Since the last GDPNow update on Monday, July 2, the nowcasts of second-quarter real consumer spending growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth have declined from 2.9 percent and 7.1 percent, respectively, to 2.7 percent and 6.0 percent, respectively. These declines more than offset an increase in the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth from 0.62 percentage points to 0.70 percentage points after this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Nowcast Latest Forecast: 3.8% - July 6, 2018

Volatility Comparison

As GDPNow continues its volatile trend the New York Fed Nowcast shows virtually no movement on anything.

For a discussion of the GDPNow ISM bounce, please see "Dynamic Factor" Boosts GDPNow Following ISM: Email Discussion With Pat Higgins.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (10)
No. 1-10
Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Repeat, there has been no really recovering. It's all a mirage.

Realist
Realist

Yet jobs sit empty with no one to fill them. Is that also a mirage?

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Yes, it is. You don't honestly believe that. We are seeing absolutely no wage growth- period. I live in one of the so-called tony areas of the Bay Area. Most of the restaurants our empty and their is vacancys all over the place. The labor market is totally manipulate. 3 of my neighbors have been let go at Fortune 2000 companies over the last 2 months.

MorrisWR
MorrisWR

At least I finally got a raise, of course it amounts to 2% a year for three years. Hooray...

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Congratulations on your rise! Now, the next question I have has your healthcare cost gone down or up significantly over the past three years. I'm guessing up. There has been no meaningful recovery. The system is spent. It completely collapse in 2008. The sooner we accept it the quicker we can develop meaningful solutions to fix it.

Realist
Realist

Actually Tony, I do believe that. I see it a lot of it where I live. Help wanted signs everywhere. Lots of job ads in the papers and online job sites. Businesses complaining about not being able to find qualified workers. Wage growth seems to be about 2-3%.

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

Paper's don't really exist anymore- no one post legitimate jobs there. As for on-line job-sites, often most postings our just re-tread from agencies.

Tony_CA
Tony_CA

There is no sustainable wage growth.

Realist
Realist

Wage growth is low. Jobs are plentiful. Any worker with any skills is working. Only the unskilled have trouble qualifying for the many jobs sitting empty b

MorrisWR
MorrisWR

You are correct Tony. Healthcare has gone up as well as housing in those three years. I live outside of (and work in) Seattle. My job is a professional position so a fairly high paying job (hospital lab) so we aren't just talking low wage positions. I do not understand people believing this economy is robust.