GDPNow, Nowcast Near Convergence in 4th Quarter GDP Estimates

Following months of wide differences between GDP forecast models, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast models are in near convergence at 3.3% and 3.2% respectively.

GDPNow Forecast: 3.3 Percent — November 9, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.3 percent on November 9, unchanged from November 3. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth inched down from -0.03 percentage points to -0.06 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Nowcast Forecast: 3.3 Percent — November 10, 2017

Neither model changed much in the past week.

Inventory rebounding following the hurricanes contributed to reported growth. Consumers had to tap savings to make repairs. Payback is likely in the first quarter.

There is no economic benefit to this. If there was, Puerto Rico would be booming.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (3)
No. 1-3

propaganda ministry in Washington will never ever allow a negative gdp" print" (ever),inflation "rate" will never rise above 2 % ever!,unemployment "rate" will never rise again "ever".Gov't has dictated all economic numbers "must fit the narrative",bad economic data will not be tolerated by the current junta


I’ll take the bet that the reported unemployment rate will never rise as well as GDP being negative but I understand your thoughts and agree it is propaganda and far from reality the way they achieve the numbers.


so if THEY miss, it will be significant