GDPNow vs Nowcast Gap Widens Again, Huge GDPNow Inventory Contribution

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Forecasts 4.2% GDP Growth. Nowcast is 2.3%. Inventories contribute 2.2 % to GDPNow.

The gap between the GDPNow and Nowcast Third-Quarter GDP estimates widened slightly to 1.9 percentage points.

The latest estimates are 4.2% for GDPNow on October 10 and 2.3% for Nowcast on October 12.

The inventory contribution for GDPNow is a whopping 2.2 percentage points, with real final sales at 2.0%. Real final sales is the bottom line GDP estimate. Inventory adjustments balance out over time.

Nowcast does not break out inventory contribution.

At least one of these models is way off base.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (1)
No. 1-1
Curious-Cat
Curious-Cat

Mish - these are interesting. Could you post a reconciliation chart some time the shows how these models compare with eventual actual? (maybe you've done that and I missed it)