Grand Coalition Days are Numbered: Demographics Provide the Key

The German political debate has shifted away from the CSU to the near-annihilation of the SPD as a political force.

Future of the Grand Coalition

Via Eurointelligence

The Bavarian election story is a different one than commentators expected. The debate the day after is not about the future of Markus Soder and Horst Seehofer. They are both secure for now. It is about the future of the federal grand coalition, and of the SPD specifically. It is also about the spectacular success of the Greens. Sueddeutsche Zeitung’s day-two front page headline is about Munich turning into a Green metropolis.

The absolute number of CSU voters has only fallen marginally compared to 2014, but their vote share dropped because of the higher participation. The SPD’s support on the other hand collapsed beyond redemption, both in relative and absolute terms. This will have important implications for the grand coalition.

The next date to watch out is the October 28 election in the state of Hesse, where a relatively popular SPD candidate hopes to unseat the CDU incumbent prime minister, Volker Bouffier. It should be a better result than in Bavaria - but it is the gap between expectations and reality that will matter in Hesse as well. And don’t underestimate the uplift the Greens received from the Bavarian election. They are now the cool party of the left.

We note that the decision to form yet another grand coalition has dramatically accelerated the party’s secular decline. Unless the Greens self-destruct, the CDU/CSU moves to the right, or the SPD itself turns to the left and manages to usurp the Left Party, we see no solution to this.

Demographics

Demographics favors the Greens in the medium term, and the Left in the long run. According to a socio-demographic analysis of Germany’s political parties, the share of SPD members who are over 60 years is 54%. The equivalent percentage for the Greens is 24%. The percentage of under-30 year olds are a mere 8% for the SPD.

Unless the SPD manages to find a new political niche - which it can do only in opposition - its share of the vote will continue to decline. The longer the current grand coalition hangs on, the faster the rate of decline.

Source of Instability

Much of the political uncertainty in Europe is perceived to be the result of Brexit and Italian politics. Germany could become a source of political instability faster than many people realize.

Once again, thank Merkel. The splintering of Germany is on her watch, by her hands.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (5)
No. 1-4
Blacklisted
Blacklisted

Politicians NEVER admit their mistakes, much less reform. The establishment in Europe, like the USA, will never reform insane immigration policies, which get worse when economies decline, as people tend to blame others for their failings. Through the school of hard knocks, people can learn from their mistakes. Politicians need to be given the opportunity to learn from their mistakes by firing ALL incumbents EVERY election to install de facto term-limits.

Stuki
Stuki

The strange Lega/M5S coalition may become the blueprint for Europe. Perhaps an AfD/Greens coalition.... :) Kick those fertile muzzies out, before they and their kids get drivers licenses and "pollute" das vaterland with soda bubbles....

Schaap60
Schaap60

If Merkel's goal was to destroy what started as her main rival party, it looks like she's succeeded beyond all expectations. Having destroyed the SPD, maybe the CDU/CSU moves a little to the right to pick up more voters, realizing the Greens have limited upside that far to the left. I don't know enough about German politics to speculate whether this was by accident or design.

JL1
JL1

The only chance Germany has in the future is AfD+FDP+CSU+CDU coalition that would send all the failed asylum seekers back home (Seehofer has started giving failed asylum seekers residence permits if they get a low wage job for a short while), that removes previously granted asylums and subsidiary protections and sends people back home (Germany has given these with the highest percentage of all EU countries and according to international treaties these can be REMOVED once the reasons one fled their home country cease to exist like has happened already with most of Syria now being peaceful, most of Iraq now being peaceful, Kabul in Afganistan being peaceful and Somalia being mostly peaceful since 2013 according to European Court of Human Rights), that removes the German specialty of "humanitarian protection" that Germany gives to 50k asylum seekers per year that do not qualify for either asylum or subsidiary protection despite "humanitarian protection" not being required by EU directives and most EU countries NOT granting it at all and Italy just removing it under Salvini's direction, that starts putting all failed asylum seekers in detention until they can be removed as allowed by EU directives and that puts all asylum seekers in CLOSED residences and CLOSED refugee camps as allowed by EU directives, that starts turning all migrants back at German borders like France does at it's border with Italy, that demands that EU policy must be returning migrants back to Africa or to Middle-East since Turkey is SAFE so no reason to let anyone come from Turkey to even Greece (most would not have come in 2015 if the borders from Greece onward had been closed since Greece does not give free welfare money and free apartments) and migrants coming from Africa are saved at sea and taken to either Libya or Tunisia and then taken either to their home countries if they are SAFE or to UN refugee camps in Africa where they can live in safety.

Additionally Germany and Sweden and other welfare countries have to STOP giving free apartments to people getting asylum or subsidiary protection and instead treat migrants like they treat their own homeless citizens namely only giving migrants a place in dormitory style accommodation 4-6 guys per room so the free apartment magnet is removed. Also all welfare needs to be removed from migrants so getting on western welfare is no longer a magnet to come.

In Facebook time NO country should be giving free welfare money and free apartments like Germany and Sweden and many others stupidly have done.