Half the Population of China, 760 Million, Now Locked Down


In China, 760M people are locked down. Apple just issued a warning. In Japan, there is a sudden spike coronavirus cases.

Apple is supply constrained and Revenue Projections Will Fall Short Due to Coronavirus.

Apple Inc. became the first major U.S. company to say it won’t meet its revenue projections for the current quarter due to the coronavirus outbreak, which it said had limited iPhone production for world-wide sales and curtailed demand for its products in China.

Apple had last month projected record revenue for the current quarter of between $63 billion and $67 billion, which it said was a wider than normal range due to the virus. The technology giant on Monday didn’t provide an updated sales estimate, saying that the situation in China is evolving. It said it would provide more information when it holds its earnings call in April.

The difficulties are extending into supply chains around the world. Volkswagen AG said Monday it would postpone production restarts at some Chinese plants for another week. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV last week said it temporarily halted production in Serbia because it could not get parts from China, which continues to deal with manufacturing delays as it seeks to contain the spread of the virus.

Sudden Spike in Japan Coronavirus Cases

Please consider 11 infected on Tokyo tour boat, likely transmitted coronavirus to non-passengers

A sudden spike in new coronavirus cases was confirmed among attendees at a New Year's party for independent taxi drivers held on a traditional "yakatabune" river tour boat in the capital.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says the virus may be spreading in the capital, as people not at the party -- including an office worker and a chauffeur -- were also confirmed infected, and is calling for measures to prevent transmission. It provided information on the route of infection among party attendees at a Feb. 16 press conference.

The New Year's party was held on Jan. 18 by a branch of a private taxi union based in Tokyo's Jonan area, and was attended by about 70 taxi drivers and their families who dined on the boat. However, the windows were shut due to heavy rain, creating a confined space with insufficient ventilation -- the kind of environment where disease spreads more easily.

An independent taxi driver in his 70s, who participated in the party along with his wife, had tested positive in Tokyo. He is the son-in-law of a woman in her 80s from Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo, who died on Feb. 13 -- Japan's first confirmed fatality from the COVID-19 illness.

Two people who were not on board the tourist boat also tested positive for the new virus: a female employee with the union branch in her 50s, who had contact with the taxi driver at work, and a doctor in his 60s at Makita General Hospital in Tokyo's Ota Ward.

Lockdown Hits 760 Million, Half of China

In case you still want to compared this to the flu, at least 760 million people are Locked Down in China according to a New York Times analysis of government announcements in provinces and major cities. That's more than half the country’s population.

Housing complexes in some cities have issued the equivalents of paper hall passes to regulate how often residents leave their homes. Apartment buildings have turned away their own tenants if they have come from out of town. Train stations block people from entering cities if they cannot prove they live or work there. In the countryside, villages have been gated off with vehicles, tents and other improvised barriers.

At a high-speed rail station in the eastern city of Yiwu this past week, workers in hazmat suits demanded that passengers send the text messages that show their location data before being allowed to leave.

An app developed by a state-run maker of military electronics lets Chinese citizens enter their name and national ID number and be told whether they may have come in contact, on a plane, train or bus, with a carrier of the virus.

In Zhejiang, one of China’s most developed provinces and home to Alibaba and other technology companies, people have written on social media about being denied entry to their own apartments in Hangzhou, the provincial capital.

The eastern city of Nanjing requires anybody who takes a cab to show ID and leave contact information. Yunnan Province wants all public places to display QR codes that people must scan with their phones whenever they enter or exit.

Chen Guangsheng, the deputy secretary general of Zhejiang’s provincial government, called it “inappropriate” that some places had employed “simple and crude practices,” like locking people into their homes to enforce quarantines.

Other than 760 million people in some form of lockdown, supply disruptions, warnings from carmakers and phone makers, this is still no worse than the flu.

After all, deaths are only 1,868 (assuming you actually believe that number).

If this takes off in Tokyo, look out.

Japan Update From Bianco

Not the Princess

Virus Probably With Us Beyond 2020

The above from Coronavirus Expert Opinions.

CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield says "I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we'll get community based transmission and you can start to think about it like seasonal flu. The only difference is we don't understand this virus."

Also note Harvard Professor Says Global Coronavirus Pandemic is Likely

Finally, please consider Coronavirus Tweets of the Day on many facets of the disease.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (71)

China is an integral part of the world supply chain. I agree the world can't cut china off and pretend no impact. as far as for all those people under quarantine? i'm read it on cnn after seeing your site and was thinking what's next lepper colonies?

No. 1-20

Even a delay of 2% of supplies will cause economies o fall into recession. Financial markets are about to make a move ahead of economic outcomes.


The bioweapon went airborne,this is not adding up,Beijeng playin us,PLA secret nerve agent that got loose and they have no way to control and there's no antidote.


@Sechel good point; a couple just evacuated from the princess cruise ship is being quarantined in San Antonia for 2 weeks, no symptoms (is that enough time ?). Also they are from my county I live in (Florida) . Will they be treated as pariahs when they return home? I must admit I find this somewhat disconcerting not only for them but possible reinfection to the populace . Godspeed everyone.


1 st quarter earnings? "Smithers, get those GAAP reporting rules changed, pronto".


Blame China. The world will learn the hard way.


Nobody knows the transmission path, the incubation length (14 or 24 days?) and testing returns numerous false negatives. Isolating quickly from China was a good start but there's no real solution.


A couple of prominent Chinese MDs, including Wuhan hospital director, have died from Corona. What does that say about effectiveness of preventing and treating the virus? What does it hint at for the health of ordinary caregivers in Wuhan when these bigwigs die and Red Army rushes in 25000 med workers?

There are going to be waves of secondary diseases and food shortages hitting next, you can't lock down half the country and send out for Chinese food for 760 million


If China locked down half of their population so far I assume that is the only way for them to (try) keep a control on the virus spreading. That is bad news anyway as it indicate the real severity of that new epidemic.
Their medical system indicate a lack of manpower and supplies ressources in various areas already.

The worse scenario pointed out by some medical authorities in the know of that kind of virus possible pandemic if no war-like containment methods are used, that is a final infection of two third of the world population.
This will, if the pandemic spread worldwide as fast as in China WUHAN area, not cause a recession, a depression but an economic implosion! That would mean, besides up to 130 millions of death, that up to 650 millions people (15 per cent) would be in SEVERE condition worldwide and furthermore there would be lockdowns everywhere.

In the meantime, news are slow to be followed by an effect as Official Medical reports in China last week indicated that spreaders may be symptoms free up to 24 days. When will quarantine period be extended to at least 24 days everywhere on earth?
In the same token, research made by scientific on the basis of the SARS-coronavirus indicated that it could survive on supports up to 28 days in the right condition of hygrometry and temperature. It took time in China to organise disinfection of the environment and usual objects
as even money coins.

However, the worse is hopefully not necessarily the final outcome of a terrible process if serious fighting methods are carefully prepared and eventually enter application if needed .



Because like the HIV (AIDS) but unlike the SARS virus, it enter the cells generally with very few Immune System reactions that mean unnoticed (symptom free) resulting in an incubation period that may be long. Combine that with the Flu type virus which is very contagious and you have a real challenge facing the medical community
That is due to the fact that the proteins (S) used to force the genetic material of the virus (ARN in this case) into the cells with adequate receptors for it (lungs, hearth, kidneys, vascular system and even dendritic white cells (AC2 receptors), liver (with another receptor)) is of the same type as the one of the HIV. These proteins dont enter into the cell (unlike the SARS and FLU virus) and then this fact impede a reaction from the immune system (cytokine, interferon…) which make you sick


Furthermore as like the HIV it enter and finally kill some white cells, the collapse of the Immune system is noticed in some Chinese deaths.

These informations on the virus result from an interesting article translated courtesy Jennifer Zang on (Mish given) Twitter link.


Wouldn’t it be less expensive and disruptive to institute modern hygiene practices in this backwards country?


I went to Best Buy yesterday wanting to look at new electronics for the new house in Florida, I asked about the new PlayStation 5 which I have long awaited preordering for, it has been pushed back by more than a year already. Bad news, Coronavirus means they can't get the supplies they need and production is not going to plan, the PS5 is going to be late. Originally scheduled for release in time for the 2020 holiday season it now will be 2021. Sony and the retailers that would have sold it like Best Buy are going to get hammered.

Also, headline at CNBC this morning, Walmart missed on holiday sales Dow futures down over 160 because of it.

Walmart earnings miss as holiday season disappoints, outlook falls short of estimates

the retailer saw weak demand for toys, apparel and video games during the holiday season.

The video component is big, people have been waiting years for the PS4 replacement and who in their right mind is going to buy a PS4 at $399-499 when there is a new PS5 supposedly due out later this year? I know I won't even though I gave away my Playstation when I left the country in January 2017. I held out for the new PS5 rather than buy something that would be obsolete within months. Now I wishI had bought one since I have had no game console for going on two years. And who knows when they will now allow orders to be taken.


The difference between China and the rest of the world is China has a 6 weeks head start. There's no containing it now. The only thing you can do is protect yourself.


The numbers appear to be consistent:

-80% tingling to minor cold
-15% pneumonia
-3-5% requiring ICU

"While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.

It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old. "


Ok, so let's talk about something more immediately important for those in the US: Exactly how much of China export is shutdown? Are we able to send anything there? And exactly how long is going to be before we start noticing an impact on things we really need............not crap like playstations.


I believe people are dying. But what if China, with lower world consumption, actually wants to shut down manufacturing and exhaust an oversupply of goods to bring things back towards equilibrium? Death rates are within normal (unless some bit of news has come out I haven't seen) ranges and they're more or less shutting down the country. It would also allow time and an excuse for restructuring loans and build demand for goods and services. Global travel is such that if this was a highly contagious outbreak I'd expect more cases further away from ground zero.


People ask whether China's drastic action is consistent with the data. I think it is. Consider what China might look like today had they not taken dramatic action. Wuhan's medical facilities were overwhelmed, and the death rate skyrocketed to 10% initially.

In the absence or radical action, the rest of China would have no doubt experienced the same thing. With an R0 of 4, or close, the bulk of China could been infected within months, and medical facilities would have been overwhelmed everywhere. The cost of non-action, even based on what we know, would have been massive.

By implementing radical quarantines, they cut the R0 to under 1, and it appears to be slowing in China. Has the problem been avoided? Or postponed? What will happen when China attempts to re-open? We may very well see a second wave of infections, and then what?

A related question is, what will other countries do when faced with a Wuhan-like explosion of cases? Can they limit the spread without a country-wide shutdown?


I'm beginning to suspect something's different in Wuhan's ambient air; There aren't enough deaths outside China,(fortunately!), and I doubt the difference is explained merely by hygiene. If so, the French would all be dead by now.
Has anyone seen detailed data on cause of deaths in Wuhan?

5 Replies


I looked and looked but could not find anything. Air pollution causes up to 211/100000 pneumonia deaths per year (as opposed to 28 in the US) but that is across China.

Although it doesn't answer your question, if you can get the paper below to load (takes an age) then there are some interesting tables in there. It appears the CFR is dropping over time. I think the most likely explanation for this is not that medical care is improving, or the virus is becoming less lethal, but rather that there were a LOT more cases in Wuhan than were being counted. Note that the uptick in cases last week, when the counting definition changed, still only counted those who had reported sick. Anybody who had mild symptoms and thus didn't go to a hospital, or was sick but didn't report it for fear of round ups, is still not being counted.


Thanks for that link! Excellent data there. I compared the distribution of cases to the distribution of ages of people in China. I found:
Age 0-20 - Only got Covid 10% as often
Age 21-29 - Only got Covid 50% as often
Age 30-50 - Got Covid about 10% more often than average
Age 50-60 - Got Covid 60% more than average
Age 61+ - Got Covid 80% more than average

Then we look at mortality:
Age 0-9: No one died
Age 10-30: 0.2% died
Age 40-50: 0.4% died
Age 50-60: 1.3% died
Age 60-70: 3.6% died
Age 70-80: 8.0% died
Age 80+: 14.8% died

So, the older you are, the more likely you are to get it, AND the more likely you are to die if you do get it. The death rate almost triples every ten years over 50. Gender was also a factor. 1.9% of males died, compared to 1.2% of females.

Taken together, an 80 year old man is 80% more likely than average to get it, 10x more likely to die if he gets it, and another 50% higher death rate for being a male. Thus he is 27 more likely to die than the average person. A 65 year old male is 80% more likely to get it, 2.4 more likely to die if they do get it due to age, and 50% more likely to die due to gender, or a total of 6 times as likely as the average person. Meanwhile people under 50 are pretty safe, especially women.

Throw in other health issues, such as hypertension, diabetes, heart problems, cancer,and respiratory problems, and you can triple the death chance again, but flip it, and if you DON'T have any of those, you cut the death chance by 2/3.


Yep, but note that this data is still skewed by Wuhan. I am certain that the number of actual cases is still a lot, lot higher there. Since air pollution and social structures are similar across the cities of Hubei province, there is no other obvious reason why the cfr is so much higher there.
I think the cfr will be lower, but the sheer scale of the spread is the issue. Maybe 200-250,000 excess deaths in the U.K. (which is about 150% of the usual numbers).


After seeing those numbers, and thinking about it, I wonder how much of a factor age really is? As you look at older groups, there is going to be a lot higher incidence of things like hypertension, diabetes, cancer, heart problems, and respiratory problems that is going to explain a great deal of the increasing death rate. While an 80 year old man may be 10x more likely to die, on average, most of that increase is probably due to age-related increases in other health factors. If he is healthy and has none of those other markers, it may only be 2x as likely.


Note in particular this data. The percent of patients who died with the following co-morbid conditions:
Cardiovascular: 10.5%
Diabetes: 7.9%
Respiratory: 6.3%
Hypertension: 6.0%
Cancer: 5.6%
Unknown or no data: 2.6%
No co-morbid conditions: 0.9%

To beat this, stay healthy. Your are 8 times more likely to die if you have any of the co-morbid conditions.


@JimmyScot Thanks, Jimmy. Couldn't get it down through the Spectrum gauntlet; that's probably another $180/mo.
There's a WSJ article reporting that 542 of roughly 2,300 Yokohama cruise ship passengers tested, (out of 3,700) tested positive so far.
If one applies the ratios from the Wuhan data to these 542, one would expect 15 deaths:
542 X 20% "serious" X 14% of "serious" dying = @ 15 deaths to be expected. This would put it in the range of 26 times worse than garden variety flu if it duplicated the Wuhan experience nationwide. There are apparently lots of ways to die from pneumonia: Fungi, various bacteria lying dormant waiting for a weakened immune system, etc. The lack of deaths outside Wuhan is starting to ring my bell.

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