Home Builder Optimism Displayed By Jump In Permits

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Permits lept to the highest rate since 2007 as builder optimism sets in.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following New Residential Construction statistics for October 2019:

Building Permits

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,461,000. This is 5.0 percent above the revised September rate of 1,391,000 and is 14.1 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,281,000. Single‐family authorizations in October were at a rate of 909,000; this is 3.2 percent above the revised September figure of 881,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 505,000 in October.

Housing Starts

Privately‐owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000. This is 3.8 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,266,000 and is 8.5 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,211,000. Single‐family housing starts in October were at a rate of 936,000; this is 2.0 percent above the revised September figure of 918,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 362,000.

Housing Completions

Privately‐owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,256,000. This is 10.3 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,139,000 and is 12.4 percent above the October 2018 rate of 1,117,000. Single‐family housing completions in October were at a rate of 897,000; this is 4.5 percent above the revised September rate of 858,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 354,000.

Bigger Picture

Easy Year Over Year Comparisons

Year-over-year comparisons look nice across the board, but much of it due to easy comparisons.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Treasury yields and mortgage rates are up off the lows but well below the rates of a year ago.

One also has to wonder about the impact on optimism of a stock market at all time highs.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (11)
No. 1-8
FromBrussels
FromBrussels

...a 80ties song pops up in my head : The Only Way Is Up.... Yep, everything' s wonderful !

ksdude69
ksdude69

I hate it. The spread to the rural area is getting out of hand. Worse yet are the idiots that move here to get away and try turning it into where they came from.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Mish by the time you move to southern Utah there will be suburban sprawl there like Phoenix. These homebuilders will keep building until there is a crash. They can undercut the price for pre-existing homes and keep up inflict more damage to existing homeowners via the new home market.

numike
numike

New Arizona Development Bans Residents From Bringing Cars Developers of Tempe rental community aim to draw younger people with pedestrian-friendly design In a new development in Tempe, residents will get around by scooter, light rail and ride-sharing instead of in their own cars. A $140 million Arizona development is banning residents from bringing their own cars in favor of scooters, bikes and ride-sharing, testing demand for a new type of walkable neighborhood. The 1,000-person rental community, which broke ground this month in Tempe, won’t allow residents to park cars on site or in the surrounding area as a term of their leases. The founders say it will be the first of its kind in the U.S.

numike
numike

A report from the Mortgage Reports. “A new study indicates that first-time home buyers are having more mortgage delinquency problems than they have since 2010. Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor report had some alarming findings: Nearly 1% of mortgage loan originations in the first quarter of 2019 were delinquent six months after origination. That’s a 60% increase over the past two years and the highest since 2010.” https://themortgagereports.com/57959/get-a-low-rate-avoid-mortgage-delinquency-as-a-first-time-home-buyer

DFWRealEstate
DFWRealEstate

Decent numbers on the surface, but it was a really easy comparison to last year with rates which were 114 basis points lower in October. All the Fed has done is add more distortion to an already bifurcated housing market. Yeah Us! Should be interesting to see what the administration does to prop up the real estate markets next year. May be hard to produce an encore outside of NIRP.

Sechel
Sechel

Not sure if the housing market is a symptom of a strong economy or a weak one. The pick up in interest is obviously a byproduct of record low rates which we wouldn't have if the economy were stronger overall