How Long Will the Government Shutdown Last?

I rated the government shutdown threat a "zero bowls of popcorn" affair. Others think it's the real deal.

CNN's reason is "human nature".

CNN then came to a brilliant conclusion: "The most likely scenario remains a relatively brief government shutdown."

In summary, human nature may cause the shutdown to last longer than you think, but most likely it won't. Thank you CNN.

Nuclear Option

Trump threatened the "Nuclear Option". That means Trump proposes the Senate change the rules so that only 51% are needed to end a filibuster instead of 60%.

That possibility ensures blockage will not go on indefinitely. At some point, Republicans would do just that.

Calculated Risk Poll

In an informal Twitter Poll, Bill McBride (Calculated Risk), asked followers what they thought.

I voted with the 57% (the top category, by January 28) but there are still a couple hours left and the percentages may change.

Zero Bowls of Popcorn

Don't bother popping corn while waiting for fireworks. There won't be any fireworks. Some agreement will come, likely sooner than later, but long before anything significant happens.

Any bond selloff over this shutdown is unwarranted.

The shutdown itself merits no popcorn.

Amusing comments by CNN and political hacks provide the only reason to get out a bowl. We also have this question to consider.

Answers coming up, I expect shortly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

No. 1-13

and its over. schumer blinked


Its going to last because its symbolic of the partisan divide, two major bills passed on party lines has sowed the seeds of this enmity. It's almost as though the President isn't really there? VP Pence is more important he can cast the tie breaking vote in the Senate.


"The Times reports that he's in the white house sulking and not engaged in brokering a deal." You do know that the Times is a propaganda operation, don't you?


I do software development and they were computer books.