How Many Lies Will Trump Tell Tonight in His Special Address? Bookies Take Bets

Trump gives a special address tonight on the Wall. You can place bets on the number of lies he will tell.

BookMaker lets you Bet on Political Events. The over-under line for the number of lies tonight is 3.5.

A negative money line represents the amount that you would have to bet to win $100 if you were correct. For example, a -250 money line means you would win $100 if you bet $250 and won the bet.

Thus, betters expect Trump is a big favorite to tell at least 4 lies in his special address to the nation tonight.

Betters overwhelmingly do not believe Trump will declare a national emergency.

Notice that I said "betters" not bookies. The bookies don't care. They take a huge spread and adjust the odds so that they make money regardless of the outcome.

Notice the shutdown options. You have to bet $115 to win $100 no matter which side you bet.

For that bet, the house takes $15 dollars (15%) of every bet made.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (32)
No. 1-24
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Schaap60
Schaap60

How many sentences are there in his speech?

Sechel
Sechel

I was thinking about this. Kelly Anne Conway goes on Chris Wallace claiming 4,000 terrorists crossing the border only to get shot down under fact check. Trump's been launching trial balloons all week judging reactions. The talk about declaring a national emergency is most likely another huge trial balloon in my opinion.

Sechel
Sechel

We need Tom Servo, Crow T and Mike Nelson at the bottom of our screen telling jokes and fact checking. That's the only way I'd watch. Trump's speech was made for Mystery Science Theater 3000

AWC
AWC

Politicians lie? The hell you say!

Brother
Brother

It's OK to lie as long as you hit the emotional buttons like Minorities, Children, & Education. Trump needs to rip their heads off.

CzarChasm-Reigns
CzarChasm-Reigns

If Trump repeats a lie, does that count as 2? Either way, 3.5 seems low.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

A better question would be, "Will investors blame Trump for a down day in the financial markets tomorrow?"

thimk
thimk

wow premier of "the wall is coming" . darn; tonight's my bowling night. might have to catch it on redbox

awc13
awc13

i would bet that he will make the same or fewer than the democrat response

pi314
pi314

Betters lost their shirts in the 2016 presidential election. Perhaps it is not a good idea to bet against Trump?

shred1
shred1

I sure wish I had that bet when nobel peace prize winner Obomber said he would get us out of the Bush wars, and then bombed hell out of Libya, Syria, and Yemen, AND stayed in Afghan/Iraq.

ML1
ML1

Let's see if the CNN, MSNBC, FOX, ABC, NBC, CBS will continue claiming the bogus and outdated "there is only 11 million illegals in USA" blabla.

The 11 million illegals claim has been around over 10 years while millions and millions new illegals came to USA.

OR

Whether they reveal the newest study that there are up to 29.5 million illegal immigrants in USA:

There are also at least 5+ million kids of illegal immigrants in USA who got birthright citizenship on top of the 29.5 million illegal immigrants. This is due to the distorted interpretation by bureaucrats and activist lawyers that law giving US citizenship to children of black slaves means that babies born to illegal immigrants and tourists in USA should also get US citizenship:

Hundreds of thousands new birthright citizenship getting babies of illegal immigrants are born every year.

Blacklisted
Blacklisted

"How Many Lies Will Trump Tell Tonight?"

Much less than those offering the counter-arguments.

Zardoz
Zardoz

What really reduces me to a terrified puddle of jelly that will submit ANYTHING to feel safe is that Canadian border. The Canadians let ANYBODY in... Syrians, Congolese, Asians, people from crazy balkan countries, even Montenegrans... the whole rainbow of brown. They're up there, with nothing between them and our big, soft bellies but a walk in the woods! I for one am frightened out of my wits! Safe us Donald! Build the Wall 2: Boondoggle Boogaloo!

Ted R
Ted R

Oh give me a break. All politicians tell lies and take liberties with the truth. That is politics.

Ted R
Ted R

I agree.

AWC
AWC

What? No bets on how many lies Schumer and Pelosi will tell in the rebuttal?

truthseeker
truthseeker

Good grief Mish would you rather have “no borders” Hillary?

truthseeker
truthseeker

How many gang members, drug pushers will sneak across the border tonight?

Stuki
Stuki

As Latkes point out, the bet's not over what Trump says, but about the exact political biases of the guy who get to define what is a lie and what is not.

None of these halfwits are even remotely intelligent enough to phrase themselves in ways precise enough for any of what they say to be conclusively proven or disproven one way or the other. People that bright, assuming they exist at all, never even make it out of the starting blocks in degenerate political systems like "ours." This exercise, is just another branch of the same tree that attempts to give privileged, connected, vapid, nonthreatening twits of the Zuckerberg kind, some sort of authority to "determine" which "news" is "fake" and which is not.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

I wish I had known about that lie-betting thing when Obummer was president, I could have made some serious change every time he opened his pie hole.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Where is the follow-up with the result that Betters declared?

Escierto
Escierto

It's interesting to see that the republic founded by brave men is now populated by a large group of whiners who hide under their beds at the approach of a child from Honduras. I wonder what Patrick Henry would think reading these comments?