Ignore the Nonsense Reporting: Boris Johnson was Not Defeated, He Won Big Time

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Numerous headlines globally suggest historic "defeats" of Boris Johnson by Remainers. Ignore those headlines.

Laughable Headline

The Guardian reports Cornered Boris Johnson Suffers Triple Commons Defeat.

These writers clearly cannot think. Take a look at what has transpired.

Just the Facts Maam

  1. Johnson goaded 21 problematic Rebel Tories into voting against him. Those Tories have been removed from the party and will lose their seats in the next election. Good riddance.
  2. Because of foolish Remainer actions, Johnson will no longer have to go through the charades of working out a deal with the EU.
  3. Johnson's hands are effectively bound and he welcomes that! He will not have to work out a deal. Instead he can lay the blame on the EU and on the Remainers for removing the option to negotiate with the EU.
  4. By removing the 21 rebels, Johnson won the support of Nigel Farage thereby allowing a coalition between the Brexit Party and the Tories minus the rebel problem makes.
  5. The Remainers are hopelessly split. Corbyn wants a referendum or the right to work out a customs deal with the EU. The Liberal Democrats want to remain. Many Labour party members want Brexit.

Q & A on losing

Q. How the heck is that losing?

A. I think you know the answer.

House of Lords Charades

Supposedly, Johnson suffered a "triple defeat" today, using the word "defeat" loosely.

This charade moved to the House of Lords where a massive filibuster is taking place on a motion that will supposedly block a no deal brexit.

Ho. Hum.

Brexit Filibuster

For a discussion of the laughable nature of this effort, please see House of Lords Bogged Down on Brexit Filibuster Amendments.

What If the Filibuster Succeeds?

  • If the Filibuster succeeds, Johnson's next move may be to do nothing. He has the option of waiting to see the Remainers' next move.
  • Alternatively, Johnson may promise to abide by an election date before October 31. The problem with the alternate option is neither side trusts each other and there is no legal mechanism to ensure an election date.

What If the Filibuster Loses?

In this case, I 100% expect Johnson to do nothing.

The legislation will have passed but it is not legally binding until it has the Queen's Assent.

Recall that the Queen Will Suspend Parliament at Request of Boris Johnson.

Starting September 10, parliament will be out of session until October 14. Then Johnson can deliver the Queen's speech starting a new session.

Assumes the Bill Passes on September 5 or 6

September 6 is a Friday.

On Monday, September 9, Johnson is likely to make a statement to the effect that he needs legal advice on the bill. Guess what?

Parliament will be out of session until October 14.

Then What?

Instead of submitting the legislation to the Queen, I believe Johnson would give his Queen's Speech starting a new Parliamentary session. Perhaps Johnson delays a day or two on the Queen's Speech.

All pending legislation in progress dies on the vine.

The House of Lords charades has to start all over again.

But wait. It has to start all over again in the Commons first!

Pick a date for all this to happen. Whatever date you pick, it will be to the liking of Johnson or it won't happen.

Hello October 18

On October 18, it will be impossible to schedule an election in time to stop Brexit.

It will also be impossible for a motion of No Confidence to put an alternative government in place.

The default Brexit date is October 31.

Johnson can run out the clock if he can delay events until October 18.

One Remaining Issue

The only Remainers option would be to succeed a second time on a move in the House of Lords.

Perhaps Johnson and his team submits 500 or 5,000 amendments. Don't rule it out.

Should that fail, Johnson may just refuse to submit the legislation to the Queen.

Time's Up

Sorry Remainers, the time has expired.

Starting from the Top

Let's return to the beginning.

Johnson's move to prorogue parliament worked brilliantly. He got the exact response from the rebels that he wanted.

Johnson then removed the rebels. They are lost and gone forever.

Lies All Around

Johnson insists he not want an election.

What a joke. Of course Johnson wants an election. Corbyn is the one who does not want an election, at least not right now.

There are lies on all sides.

Everyone wants an election, but only conditionally.

Who is In Control?

Johnson has control of the conditions simply by refusing to submit the legislation to the Queen (assuming it ever gets out of the House of Lords) on time in the first place.

Enormous Mistake

Remainers made an enormous mistake believing they could stop Brexit.

Had they voted for Theresa May's pathetic deal, they would have gotten 85% of what they wanted.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (27)
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Je'Ri
Je'Ri

Never underestimate the ability of a conservative in any Western "democracy" to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Expat
Expat

Keep digging, Mish. Eventually you will hit oil. The filibuster is dead. No Deal Brexit is delayed if not dead. Boris can blame the EU but the truth is that he has not made any proposals or amendments to the existing agreement. He is simply whining.
So, spin this all you want. You were wrong about all the procedures in parliament. Have YOU gone back to study parliamentary rules and UK law?

themonosynaptic
themonosynaptic

If Corbyn is smart, and in control of enough of his party, he will delay agreement on the General Election until November.

This will put Johnson in a tight spot. He will either have to go along with the delay, or have an election just as the media are in a "Brexit Crisis" frenzy: agonizing over every kid who can't get their medicines and their distraught parents; every line at every airport; every traffic jam in Kent; and every person in street interviews in a collective tizzy.

Either way, it seems bad for Johnson. The Brexit Party will re-animate, splitting the Conservative vote on the right, and the likely reaction from Johnson and his weird cronies (like Rees Mogg - who might be the best evidence David Icke has for his reptile overlord conspiracy) will be to tilt the Conservative Party sharply to the right - likely allowing either "Independent Conservatives" or Lib-Dems to win otherwise true blue seats (I'd put money on Rory Stewart winning his constituency if he stands).

Luckily for Johnson, Corbyn is a bit of a twit, and that is his most powerful political weapon at the moment.

PodUK
PodUK

Mish - that's not how this is going to evolve. Boris is going to put the legislation in for Royal Assent, make it law, and then dare the Marxist frauds in the Labour Party to vote against a general election.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Keep digging, Mish. Eventually you will hit oil. The filibuster is dead. No Deal Brexit is delayed if not dead. Boris can blame the EU but the truth is that he has not made any proposals or amendments to the existing agreement. He is simply whining. So, spin this all you want. You were wrong about all the procedures in parliament. Have YOU gone back to study parliamentary rules and UK law?"

Excuse me Expat for pointing out you are the one who said a Filibuster was not even possible.

I would have at least expected you to admit you had no idea what you were talking about.

And you still don't. Read my nest post - coming up.