Increasing Chance CSU Aligns With AfD in Bavaria, Completely Splitting Germany

The rhetoric and actions in Bavaria are interesting. CSU and AfD share much common ground.

DW reports Bavarian Conservative Leader Shuns Angela Merkel in German State Election.

As political snubs go, this one is a doozy. German newspaper Die Welt is reporting that the Bavarian conservative Christian Social Union (CSU) party is not planning any campaign appearances with Angela Merkel, the head of Germany's main conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Instead the Bavarians are planning to invite a foreign guest, Austria's conservative chancellor, Sebastian Kurz.

"There won't be a female chancellor coming to my final speech, but there will be a male chancellor," Bavarian state premier Markus Söder is quoted as saying.

The jibe is but the latest incident in an ongoing spat between the two conservative parties, which function as a single parliamentary group at the national level in Germany's parliament, the Bundestag. At issue is Merkel's policy toward migrants. Söder, together with other CSU leaders like party head and current Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, want Germany to start turning away certain migrants at its national borders. Merkel considers this incompatible with the principle of freedom of movement under the European Union's Schengen Agreement and is seeking an EU-wide approach to the migrant issue.

Detractors say that Söder has adopted some of the language and ideas of the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. The state premier has come under fire for using the term "asylum tourism" for refugees who move from one EU country to another in search of the best situation and for calling Germany a "Belehrungsdemokratie" — a German term for a democracy that treats it citizens as if the government knows better than they do.

Seehofer's role in the stand-off and his personal distance from Merkel have been well documented. But Söder is an equal if not more powerful force driving the hardline camp among Bavarian conservatives.

Söder's enhanced appeal on the far right hasn't moved the CSU's poll numbers in a positive direction. According to Forsa, only 40 percent of respondents plan to vote conservative in October. That's 7.7 percent less than voted for the CSU in the previous Bavarian election four years ago — and far from the level Söder needs to defend his party's absolute majority and keep his own political career on track.

Disregard the Polls

CDU is not running in Bavaria. Merkel's alleged popularity cannot help her.

If CSU needs to form a coalition to govern, you can exclude the Greens, SPD, and the far left. FDP is unlikely to put CSU over the top.

Hmm. What remains?

If necessary, CSU will form an alliance with AfD. No one else that I am aware of has discussed this possibility

The Bavaria state election is October 14.

For discussion of the heart of the matter, please see EU's 5-Point Migration Problem in a Nutshell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (9)
No. 1-9
Heinz von Beanz
Heinz von Beanz

"Germany's main conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)." Correction: The CDU is NOT a conservative party, it has been a opportunist-leftist organization ever since Murkle took over. "far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party" Correction: The AfD is a conservative party and as such is the only political grouping in Germany that embodies conservative values. "Far-right" is the term used by leftist ideologues to denigrate anyone who does not agree with the official propaganda on issues such as immigration.

JL1
JL1

CSU is talking tough because they need to get near 50% of votes to get absolute majority (there is certain percentage of votes a party needs to get to get any places in the parliament that is why one can get absolute majority in places with around 45% of votes, CSU got 47.7% last time to get absolute majority ) . One has to remember CSU was in german federal government with merkel in 2015 when she kept borders open and allowed over a million to come and they criticized her but did not leave federal government. Also they had absolute majority in bavaria but they did nothing to stop the over million people there either and everyone came to germany through bavaria. . Everyone coming to germany since 2015 were asylum tourists because germany has safe countries around it so the people came because germany had the highest acceptance rates of any eu country for asylym applications at german asylum agency BAMF and because germany has generous welfare system, free services and once people get their asylum claim accepted they get free apartment to live in with the rent paid by germany. . The sad fact is that EVERY syrian that came to germany was also an asylum tourist looking for the best free welfare benefits and free services and attracted by germany's 100% acceptance based on syrian nationality alone. Every syrian that came through turkey was already SAFE in Turkey and turkey provided free tents with heaters, free Food, free water and free schooling at it's refugee Camps and allowed syrians to also rent their own apartments with their own money that they had on savings or that they earned working. Greece was also SAFE but provides NO free welfare money and NO free apartment and the same situation was and is in Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia aka the countries syrians travelled through on the Balkan route to get to welfare countries starting with Austria and continuing with Germany. . Hungary also provides NO free welfare money and NO free apartments and Hungary registered everyone as asylum seekers as every country in EU should do according to Dublin agreement and hungary also put people in closed refugee camps where they would be in a restricted area until their asylum claim was decided as allowed under EU directives but of course people were angry and fought with authorities and tried to escape because they were so close to germany that had free welfare money, free apartments, 100% acceptance for syrians and freedom to hang around in german cities while their asylum claim was processed. In the end Merkel insulted Hungary's Orban and said Dublin agreement would not apply anymore and Orban gave everyone a ride to austrian border and Austria let them go through to Germany and then orban built tall fences with barbed wire on hungary's border with serbia to stop people coming through Hungary and once the flow to Germany started to go through Slovenia Orban built the fence also to hungary's border with Slovenia. . The flow of people was started by leftist Syriza government in Greece because in early 2015 they stopped putting asylum seekers into detention Camps while their claim was processed as allowed under eu directives and released everyone already in detention and stopped making people saved at sea to submit asylum application. Of course word spread quickly that one could get through greece freely without registering and over a million people came through in 2015 and greece left over 99% un-registered and registered just 11 000 asylum seekers in greece. Greece also gave free ferry rides to greek mainland from the Greek islands near turkey's coast where people came by boats or where they were brought after being saved. . Merkel demanded that borders must be kept open in Europe, blathered about common EU values, said refugees are welcome, said the amount of people coming is too big to stop them and repeatedly said there is NO LIMIT on the numbers of asylum seekers germany will take. She also said dublin agreement is not valid anymore and pushed through two EU relocation plans for asylum seekers around Europe from Greece and italy for a total of 160 000 people (only little over 30 000 were relocated in the end because greece had allowed everyone go through without registration until austria and slovenia closed borders and italy had allowed most go through without registration until france closed the border and also the eu relocation program only applied to syrians and eritreans because they on average over 75% acceptance in eu countries.) . According to international law one should not give asylum to someone who has lived in a safe third country for years but merkel broke this too and germany has given asylums to syrians who have lived for years in safety in turkey and worked there and had apartment there. . All along the way no matter what craziness Merkel did CSU led by seehofer were with her in the same federal government supporting her in german parliament.. Now Merkel and seehofer are play-fighting over stopping asylum seekers already registered in some other EU country at the german border despite this being a non-issue because these can be sent back as Dublin returns in a couple days even if they come to germany to ask asylum... In truth germany could stop everyone including un-registered asylum seekers at the german border because germany is surrounded By safe countries... France has been doing this at it's border with italy since summer 2015... . Seehofer giving Merkel two weeks to get an european solution might be the biggest political scam because since then Merkel has supported conte/Salvini demands to start giving out asylums in europe from eu asylum processing centers in origin and transit countries for asylum seekers in africa which would lead to millions coming to Europe every year. Merkel has also supported Conte demands for automatic and obligatory EU relocation system for asylum seekers which would open the routes from Greece and Italy again to around Europe with most getting to the welfare paying countries like Germany and Sweden.

AndrewUK
AndrewUK
JL1
JL1 said: CSU is talking tough because they need to get near 50% of votes to get absolute majority (there is certain percentage of votes a party needs to get to get any places in the parliament that is why one can get absolute majority in places with around 45% of votes, CSU got 47.7% last time to get absolute majority ) . One has to remember CSU was in german federal government with merkel in 2015 when she kept borders open and allowed over a million to come and they criticized her but did not leave federal government. Also they had absolute majority in bavaria but they did nothing to stop the over million people there either and everyone came to germany through bavaria. . Everyone coming to germany since 2015 were asylum tourists because germany has safe countries around it so the people came because germany had the highest acceptance rates of any eu country for asylym applications at german asylum agency BAMF and because germany has generous welfare system, free services and once people get their asylum claim accepted they get free apartment to live in with the rent paid by germany. . The sad fact is that EVERY syrian that came to germany was also an asylum tourist looking for the best free welfare benefits and free services and attracted by germany's 100% acceptance based on syrian nationality alone. Every syrian that came through turkey was already SAFE in Turkey and turkey provided free tents with heaters, free Food, free water and free schooling at it's refugee Camps and allowed syrians to also rent their own apartments with their own money that they had on savings or that they earned working. Greece was also SAFE but provides NO free welfare money and NO free apartment and the same situation was and is in Macedonia, Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia aka the countries syrians travelled through on the Balkan route to get to welfare countries starting with Austria and continuing with Germany. . Hungary also provides NO free welfare money and NO free apartments and Hungary registered everyone as asylum seekers as every country in EU should do according to Dublin agreement and hungary also put people in closed refugee camps where they would be in a restricted area until their asylum claim was decided as allowed under EU directives but of course people were angry and fought with authorities and tried to escape because they were so close to germany that had free welfare money, free apartments, 100% acceptance for syrians and freedom to hang around in german cities while their asylum claim was processed. In the end Merkel insulted Hungary's Orban and said Dublin agreement would not apply anymore and Orban gave everyone a ride to austrian border and Austria let them go through to Germany and then orban built tall fences with barbed wire on hungary's border with serbia to stop people coming through Hungary and once the flow to Germany started to go through Slovenia Orban built the fence also to hungary's border with Slovenia. . The flow of people was started by leftist Syriza government in Greece because in early 2015 they stopped putting asylum seekers into detention Camps while their claim was processed as allowed under eu directives and released everyone already in detention and stopped making people saved at sea to submit asylum application. Of course word spread quickly that one could get through greece freely without registering and over a million people came through in 2015 and greece left over 99% un-registered and registered just 11 000 asylum seekers in greece. Greece also gave free ferry rides to greek mainland from the Greek islands near turkey's coast where people came by boats or where they were brought after being saved. . Merkel demanded that borders must be kept open in Europe, blathered about common EU values, said refugees are welcome, said the amount of people coming is too big to stop them and repeatedly said there is NO LIMIT on the numbers of asylum seekers germany will take. She also said dublin agreement is not valid anymore and pushed through two EU relocation plans for asylum seekers around Europe from Greece and italy for a total of 160 000 people (only little over 30 000 were relocated in the end because greece had allowed everyone go through without registration until austria and slovenia closed borders and italy had allowed most go through without registration until france closed the border and also the eu relocation program only applied to syrians and eritreans because they on average over 75% acceptance in eu countries.) . According to international law one should not give asylum to someone who has lived in a safe third country for years but merkel broke this too and germany has given asylums to syrians who have lived for years in safety in turkey and worked there and had apartment there. . All along the way no matter what craziness Merkel did CSU led by seehofer were with her in the same federal government supporting her in german parliament.. Now Merkel and seehofer are play-fighting over stopping asylum seekers already registered in some other EU country at the german border despite this being a non-issue because these can be sent back as Dublin returns in a couple days even if they come to germany to ask asylum... In truth germany could stop everyone including un-registered asylum seekers at the german border because germany is surrounded By safe countries... France has been doing this at it's border with italy since summer 2015... . Seehofer giving Merkel two weeks to get an european solution might be the biggest political scam because since then Merkel has supported conte/Salvini demands to start giving out asylums in europe from eu asylum processing centers in origin and transit countries for asylum seekers in africa which would lead to millions coming to Europe every year. Merkel has also supported Conte demands for automatic and obligatory EU relocation system for asylum seekers which would open the routes from Greece and Italy again to around Europe with most getting to the welfare paying countries like Germany and Sweden.

@JL1 'Greece also gave free ferry rides to greek mainland from the Greek islands near Turkey's coast where people came by boats or where they were brought after being saved.' Knowing many of the islands concerned very well, particularly Kos, Kalymnos, Leros, Patmos, Samos etc, these islands were totally unable to cope with this problem, so the Greek Government had no real choice but to take everyone to Athens.

Secondly you mention France. France has been busy blackmailing the UK with migrant camps outside Calais. Not one of those migrants is eligible for refugee status in the UK and should ALL have made any application in France for earlier in their journey. I don't see France admitting this simple fact.

thimk
thimk

Great content , I guess the question remains are these "true" asylum seekers OR opportunists seeking free social services. The benefits Germany offers are lucrative. One could speculative that their exists large for profit business enterprises in that particular region that will relocate you for a fee. Those truly needy asylum seekers are left out. Just say'n .

Stuki
Stuki

There is no special group of "truly needy asylum seekers." Just as there are no "systemically important" companies, institutions, banks nor anything else. Nor some people who "need" guns that the rest somehow don't.

Just as is the case with hobgoblins, More Equals only exists in progressive propaganda. And in the fantasies of the children dumb enough to fall for it.

Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach

Mish - Thanks for keeping track of what is happening in Germany, which is not getting as much attention as it should elsewhere.

And JL1 -- thanks a lot for that really interesting summary of immigration/asylum handling in Europe. Much appreciated!

LouisM
LouisM

What is wrong with the Germans? Why are they holding onto Merkel like she is the Pope? Its not a life long appointment. Heck Germans wouldn't have kept Hitler in power as long as they are keeping Merkel in power. Boot her out and put some term limits in. Even in you like Merkel (which I don't), she is not the only person who can run the country and the longer a politician stays in office...the more they act like a permanent figure...the more they consolidate power...the more they get away with collusion and corruption....the further away the govt is from the people...and the slow a nation is to respond to change. What is happening in Germany should have happened 5 years ago or longer. Its common knowledge the people don't agree with Merkel on many of her decisions but they stay with her like she is familiar. Real democracies don't elect people to stay in office for life unless their Putin.