Interesting Rate Hike Odds: March favors Hikes, December Favors Cuts

Fed fund futures show a hike in March is more likely than a cut. In December, the opposite is true.

According to Fed Fund Futures on CME FedWatch, the odds of of a Fed interest rate hike in March outweigh those of of a hike in December of 2019.

In March, allegedly there is a 5.6% chance of a hike. By December, it looks like this.

Which Way?

I suggest "The Under", rate cuts.

Mike "Mish" Shedock

Comments
No. 1-14
Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock

Editor

No comments on new Layout?

killben
killben

Layout - Thumbs up from me! I found it easy to follow posts as it is in one sequence.

killben
killben

If markets do not misbehave too much (as in decline 20-30%) over the next 3 months it is likely March hike will happen. Powell seems to be playing his cards well. Create a flutter (like auto-pilot), soothe nerves, get a hike in, soothe nerves (data dependent), throw some more crumbs to soothe markets if it gets nervous, clear skies, get a hike in, rinse repeat! I do not know what happens when the hike and roll-off starts really biting as in markets swooning.

mrutkaus
mrutkaus

I like the new layout, more "intuitive" -- I was startled by just took a few seconds to realize it was a new layout and the vertical sequence. Sort of a top down approach.

Sechel
Sechel

Too much talk about Fed independence from the President. That may be true but I believe the Fed is very much hostage to the news headlines. If s&p is tanking and the news is negative on the front page of the paper the Fed will pull back on its rate rises.