Inventory Adjustment Add 2 Percentage Points to GDPNow Estimate

The gap between GDPNow and Nowcast is 2.6 percentage points, the widest ever. Inventories pad the GDPNow estimate.

The spread between the GDPNow model and the Nowcast model of GDP predictions is the largest ever.

GDP Estimates

  • GDPNow: 4.6%
  • GDPNow Real Final Sales: 2.6%
  • GDPNow CIPI: 2.0%
  • Nowcast: 2.0%

The GDPNow Change in Private Inventories (CIPI) component is as large as the entire NOWcast GDP estimate.

Both forecasts are as of Friday, August 24.

Thus, today's jump in inventories has not yet hit the GDPNow estimate.

US Census Bureau Advance Inventories

It is not certain how today's inventory numbers affect the GDPNow model. It all depends on what the model predicted vs the results posted above.

Regardless, we can say that at least one of these model predictions is not even in the ballpark.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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