Emmanuel Macron was elected with 66.06% over 33.94% for Marine Le Pen, according to the latest figures. With Macron, the French chose the anti-Trump: a young, pro-European reformer, who never held elected office before. Macron proved the impossible, and this in itself is inspiring. The message is one of hope and optimism, a Barack Obama moment for France.
What about abstentions? Jean-Luc Mélenchon said last night that Le Pen de facto came in third, after Macron and those who chose the ni-ni, neither-nor. Looking at the numbers, a record high 11m who voted for Le Pen. There were 4.2million who went and voted blank, another record. Abstention was strong too with 26%. Mélenchon now counts on winning a majority in the legislative elections. Mélenchon is not the only opponent of Macron’s new movement, there is François Baroin with the Republicans, and of course the Front National.
- A majority of Mélenchon voters (52%) did vote for Macron in the end rather than abstain (17%); Among those who voted for Fillon in the first round, there were still 20% who chose Le Pen.
- Looking at the age profile, Macron received most votes from those 60 or older (over 70%) and the least from those aged 35-49 (57%).
- Those who considered themselves to find it very difficult to live with their income voted for Le Pen (69%), those who find it difficult or easy Macron (61% and 79% respectively).
- The poll also shows that a majority (61%) does not want Macron to win a majority in the legislative elections.
- Among the reasons of why they voted for Macron, 41% said to prevent Le Pen, a third voted for the political renewal that he represents, 16% for his program and 8% for his personality.
- Those who abstain, 31% reject both candidates, 28% don’t find themselves in their ideas and 16% consider their vote does not change the fact that Macron was winning.
A mere 16% voted for Macron because of his program while 41% voted for Macron just to prevent a Le Pen, and 26% abstained.
Macron may have been an “anti-trump” candidate but so would have Francios Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and my great grandmother long since passed away.
Macron my be an “anti-Trump” candidate but he is hardly the “anti-Trump”.
Finally, this is no Second Coming, nor is this a “Barrack Obama moment for France” except perhaps in the Obamacare sense.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock