Italy Election March 4: Consider a Surprise M5S + NL Alliance

The Italian national elections are on March 4. Polling has stopped. I expect the Five Star Movement (M5S) will do well.

I have been following Italian Election Polls for months.

There are two reasons I have not commented much.

  • First, the System is rigged against the Five Star Movement.
  • Second, the M5S is now no longer calling for a euro exit. An M5S win is not as disruptive as it once was.

System Rigging

It's not talked about in mainstream media, but the other parties got together and passed rules that place more emphasis on coalitions than coming in first.

If the other coalitions agree to exclude M5S there is nothing M5S can do other than top the 40% threshold, winning outright.

Yes, 40%, not 50% is the new majority. Even that is not enough if another coalition can top the mark.

Recent Italy Polls

Return of​ Silvio Berlusconi?!

On October 26, 2012 former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was convicted of tax fraud in an Italian court and was sentenced to four years' imprisonment. He was also banned from running for public office for a five-year term.

Guess what? The clock on his ban is expiring.

If the March 4 elections result in a hung parliament that results in new election, this 81-year old tax fraud may very well end up back as Italy's prime minister.

Ain't life grand?

Beppe Grillo?

Beppe Grillo, the founder of M5S, has ruled out coalitions. However, it's not his choice.

On September 20-21 2017 the Vice President of the Chamber of Deputies, Luigi Di Maio was elected in an on-line primary election, with 82% of votes, replacing Grillo as leader of the M5S.

Grand Coalition?

If the polls are accurate, the center-right and center-left could form a "grand" coalition. However, their policies are so divergent, it could not last.

Perhaps a "grand" coalitions forms as a matter of political expediency.

For example, Silvio Silvio Berlusconi could agree to the coalition with a thought of killing at at a convenient time next year when he can run again directly.

The eurosceptic Northern League (NL) is very wary of the center-right alliance and Silvio Berlusconi's backstabbing history.

Berlusconi is now one of the more pro-europe proponents after having advocated leaving the euro.

However, the coalitions are set until after the election. The setup opens up quite a number of possibilities.

Other Possibilities

If no coalition or combination of coalitions can top 40%, the announced coalition agreements dissolve.

Should that happen, there is a distinct chance that M5S aligns with the Northern League.

M5S+LN easily tops 40%. Should M5S outperform, this is a likely result.

Italian polls are highly unreliable. If voters wish to voice disapproval, they will vote for M5S. It is on that basis I project M5S to surprise to the upside.

Following the election, whatever the outcome, there will be enormous pressure from every corner to form an unworkable "grand" coalition just as is happening now in Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (13)
No. 1-13
killben
killben

"this 81-year old tax fraud may very well end up back as Italy's prime minister. Ain't life grand?"

Yes it is. If Italians are willing to vote for a tax fraud then the tax fraud sure is not going to say No.

Should M5S+NL coalition comes into play and NL insists on leaving the euro as a condition for the coalition will M5S blink?

Lot of interesting possibilities.

Blacklisted
Blacklisted

You are spreading propaganda against Berlusconi, who the EU conspired against because he was anti-euro. If Italy does not get out of the euro scam, the people and the establishment politicians will regret it.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/eu-commission-staged-coup-against-berlusconi-in-italy/

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

When yo fool around with voting levels to form government you play with fire. I see the hand of the EU Jesuits in this. They won't be happy until they sow even higher levels of chaos. Out of chaos a new leader will rise for the disenfranchised and lost to rally towards and it may not be a "nice" outcome.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

When fooling around with voting systems the question is - who benefits? In this case, as usual, the status quo. Guess who got Italy into its mess - the status quo. Does it suggest anything will change? NO. The status quo is the current political set up and specifically the EU that own Italy. Italy belongs, by every possible interpretation, to Brussels. Pity once sovereign states trapped in that spiders web.

Snow_Dog
Snow_Dog

“Guess what? The clock on his ban is expiring.”

Being a tax fraud is a mark of distinction akin to an artist who’s work is on exhibit at The Louvre or an ancient Greek known for his debate and oratory skill before the senate. The implications of actually having served a sentence for the transgression? Probably bumped him up in the polling.