Johnson Viewed as Better than Corbyn on NHS and Brexit

-edited

Johnson poll better than Corbyn for leadership, likability, Brexit, and yes, even NHS.

Polls Within the Polls Explain Johnson's Lead

A couple friends of mine are struggling to make sense of Johnson's lead. Their rationale is that half the public wants to remain, and Corbyn rates to do better than Johnson on the National Health System.

Polls within the polls from Deltaview (Nov 28-30), resolve the proposed paradox.

Johnson is clobbering Corbyn on NHS and Brexit everywhere but greater London and Scotland. And in Scotland, SNP clobbers Labour.

Same Question by Age Group

Not only is there a region divide there is an age group divide. Older voters do not like messing with healthcare. Note the group that is most evenly split as well as most undecided. 35-54

Once again, this explains the paradox of Johnson doing well on an issue that seemingly should be a Labour issue

This all makes sense to me. Again, it explains the base polls nicely.

What's Worse?

Over half the population thinks a government led by Corbyn would be worse than Johnson's Brexit deal.

Referendum? Who Wants One?

Close to half the voters may prefer to remain, but they are damn sick of the bickering. There is only support for another referendum in greater London and Scotland.

And even if there was another referendum, it is not clear how people would vote, except of course greater London and Scotland.

Labour's Fatal Mistakes

The above polls highlight Labour's two fatal mistakes.

  1. Having Jeremy Corbyn as party leader
  2. Failing to put Brexit behind

Corbyn could easily have passed Johnson's deal. That would have killed Brexit as an issue. And Brexit is an important one for even some Labour supporters.

Instead, Corbyn insisted on having a referendum that no one wants except in London and Scotland.

Strategic Blunder

Corbyn would not resign of course. Thus, his biggest strategic blunder was failure to take Brexit away as an issue so he could campaign on other things.

There is no paradox.

These polls within the polls fully explains the overall numbers and why Labour is struggling to catch up.

And YouthQuake Won't Save the Day for Labour because there are not enough young voters.

Winning London won't suffice. Besides, likelihood to vote is also reflected in the polls.

On November 19, I proposed Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit.

The Deltapolls within the polls provide more evidence that is the correct idea.

Instead of believing the polls are all wrong and convoluted, there is plenty of evidence they make perfect sense if one goes digging. Few do.

Things can still change, but there are only 12 days left now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (8)
No. 1-5
Quatloo
Quatloo

I like your analysis! Good article.

Tengen
Tengen

I envy the Brits. Their circus ends in a week, whereas ours drags on for 11 more months. This marathon mindset is one of the dumbest things in US politics, and that's saying something!

TheLege
TheLege

What does Avidremainer have to say? He must be pretty confident of 'remaining', surely? He had it all mapped out. I was convinced!

Herkie
Herkie

Thus, his biggest strategic blunder was failure to take Brexit away as an issue so he could campaign on other things.

But, there would be no snap election, remember how many times did BJ call for an election and that was blocked, for a good reason, except for the stalemate caused by Corbyn's refusal to pass the deal.

And come 2022 when the normal election date was due he would have had nothing to run on without Brexit as an issue. In fact, had BoJo secured Brexit and that issue was long gone the relief over finally getting Brexit off the table would have likely led to a monolithic Tory sweep in the election cycle that this snap election will accomplish.

Corbyn had no hope of gaining traction in a snap election and that is why all parties aligned against the conservaites to deny them a GE, he knew he would lose enough ground that a GE would be a disaster for everyone except the conservatives.

So, now I wonder, it appears that BoJo will get the majority needed to finally get Brexit done, but, what if his majority is so large that he can in theory do a no deal Brexit by December 31? Will he? I think he may well get a majority large enough that he can at least force the EU to concessions by saying look, we want out of the EU by 12/31/19 and you can either sign that agreement or we will simply leave without a deal on that date.

The EU seems to have gone very quiet about Brexit since the recent new deadline, possibly not wanting to be accused of interfering in internal politics of the UK, but, surely they see that a sweep by the conservatives means BJ does not need to stick to the weak and flawed Brexit plan inked last Halloween. That deal might have been intentionally bad just to push for the GE Johnson had been denied several times. If that is the case then it seems Johnson will now have the power to FORCE the EU into a better Brexit deal or alternatively no deal at all.

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

Every now and again a party has a gem of a policy area that might buy them a win. For Labour this time, it was the NHS, but they mis-played it terribly.

The problem is that the electorate, even traditional Labour supporters, see through the ridiculous narrative that Boris wants to sell the NHS to the US. A near 500 page document, hacked into the public domain ,with threadbare evidence at best to support their claim. If they had gone with healthcare spending versus OECD countries or reductions in medical and nursing staff or anything, anything at all except the "Boris loves Donald" meme there might have been a chance.

Idiots.