Kavanaugh: Overwhelming Evidence of Mistaken Identity

In a series of Tweets, Ed Whelan lays out details of what likely happened: Mistaken identity

The following bullet point comments and images are from Ed Whelan, @EdWhelanEPPC.

Comments and Images Assembled in Order Posted

  • Okay, I’ll begin laying out some information concerning Christine Blasey Ford’s allegations against Judge Kavanaugh.
  • Dr. Ford may well have been the victim of a severe sexual assault by someone 36 years ago. Her allegations are so vague as to such basic matters as when and where that it is impossible for Judge Kavanaugh to *prove* his innocence.
  • But there are compelling reasons to believe his categorical denial. Let’s look at one set of reasons.
  • According to Ford’s letter, the assault occurred “in a suburban Maryland area home at a gathering that included me and four others.” Her WaPo account adds that the house was “not far from” the Columbia Country Club.
  • The “four others” that she and her lawyer have identified are Kavanaugh, Mark Judge, P.J. Smyth, and a female classmate of Ford’s. None of the four lived in the vicinity of the Columbia Country Club.
  • Kavanaugh’s home was 3.6 miles away; Smyth’s 4.3 miles; Judge’s 10 miles; and the female classmate’s 7 miles.


Home Interior

Who Lived there?

Chris Garrett and Mark Judge

Garrett Looked Like Kavanaugh

  • If you’re at a gathering of “four others” in someone’s home, you’d ordinarily think that the four others include the host who lives in the home. And that host would be the person least likely to act like a guest and most likely to use private areas of the house.
  • If the gathering was at Garrett’s house and Garrett was there, then one of the “four others” wasn’t there.
  • Kavanaugh categorically denies being at the gathering and committing the assault. Beyond his countless character witnesses from then and now, Judge and Smyth have informed the Senate Judiciary Committee that they recall no such gathering *at which Kavanaugh was present*.
  • The female classmate has not been heard from.
  • To be clear, I have no idea what, if anything, did or did not happen in that bedroom at the top of the stairs, and I therefore do not state, imply or insinuate that Garrett or anyone else committed the sexual assault that Ford alleges.
  • Further, if Ford is now mistakenly remembering Garrett to be Kavanaugh, I offer no view whether that mistaken remembrance dates from the gathering or developed at some point in the intervening years.
  • It is regrettable that private citizens are being drawn into this. But that is the product of Senator Feinstein’s shockingly shoddy handling of the whole matter.
  • If the matter had been handled as it should have been, the Committee would have investigated the matter over the summer and resolved it privately to everyone’s satisfaction without the smearing of Kavanaugh and the dragging of the names of others into the public eye.
  • Bottom line: I believe that a fair assessment of this evidence powerfully supports Judge Kavanaugh’s categorical denial.

My comments

This exactly matches what I proposed before.

We have extremely strong denials by Kavanaugh and Smythe, but only a wishy-washy denial by Mark Judge.

The evidence is overwhelmingly one of mistaken identity. The only relevant questions now are whether it was by accident or on purpose by Ford.

We also have proof of extremely incompetent handling by Senator Feinstein. She owes everyone an apology.

Numerous people on Twitter owe me an apology as well, but I do not expect one, nor require one.

The "key" for me was the super-strong denial by Kavanaugh that put him at risk if any part of his denial was untrue.

Dilbert author Scott Adams wrote about denial theory in 2016, and I applied it to this case.

For discussion, please see Kavanaugh vs the Dilbert Lie Test.

An apology by Senator Dianne Feinstein to both Brett Kavanaugh and Christine Ford is desperately needed.

Thanks to Ed Whelan, @EdWhelanEPPC for an exemplary job! Well done!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

No. 1-13

Hold on. Mish - before you were pointing us to Doug Adams and his analysis of who is lying. I did not read it, but I'm going to guess that the conclusion was that Ford is lying?

Are you now believing that she was not lying but it is simply a case of mistaken identity? Wow - just wow.


Apparently Whelen himself realizes how stupid his theory is.

I made an appalling and inexcusable mistake of judgment in posting the tweet thread in a way that identified Kavanaugh's Georgetown Prep classmate. I take full responsibility for that mistake, and I deeply apologize for it. I realize that does not undo the mistake.


So what did Whelen do, go through an entire year book and look at google maps to try and find people that looked like Kavanaugh and accuse them of rape? This is sham detective work only meant to confuse



The fact that you give this drivel any credence is, well, sad.

I cannot wait to hear Ed Whelan's theory about the Catholic Church child-abuse scandal in Pa?

They are all lying too, right? Otherwise, why did they wait so long before coming forward?


On second read -- a puzzle: How does Whelan know where the unidentified other schoolgirl lived, and can show her house on the map? She is unidentified!

Similar photos be damned! If a girl went upstairs with someone, and now he is lying on top of her, she is close enough to identify him properly -- unless either she had not seen the boys before and did not know them (and therefore cannot identify the one on top of her reliably), or she was totally under the influence of alcohol (and therefore cannot identify the guy she was with reliably).

Whelan's map does make the point that Chrissie was a long, long way from home when she claims she ran out of the house. Back to the unanswered question of how did she get home? Or did she just go down the street to another party?