Kudlow's Economic Forecasting Credentials

Gary Cohn is gone. Larry Kudlow will be Trump's top economic advisor. Let's have a look at Kudlow's track record.

A television host from New Jersey, Kudlow is seen as temperamentally and politically similar to the president. He’s also seen within the White House as having credibility on both Wall Street and in Washington, where he served as an adviser to former President Ronald Reagan.

Given the obvious importance of credibility, let's investigate Kudlow's Economic Forecasting.

Larry Kudlow's Track Record

  1. Bubble Spotting: In 2005, he said “all the bubbleheads” looking for a housing-price crash in Las Vegas and Naples, Florida, and the wider economy, would be proven wrong.
  2. Bubble Spotting: In December 2007, the month the National Bureau of Economic Research later dated the start of the recession, he was arguing there was no recession and that the “Bush boom continues.”
  3. Inflation Alarm: In 2010 he predicted Yellen is Spellin' Future Inflation.
  4. Oil: In 2014 he argued lower oil prices are unambiguously good.
  5. Five Percent GDP: In 2015 , echoing Trump, he said the U.S. should have a 5 percent growth target,
  6. Recession: In 2016, Kudlow predicted a business recession looms.
  7. Tax Cut: In December, he said Trump’s tax overhaul will lead to 3 percent to 4 percent growth,
  8. Growth Angels: In December, he said the president is on the side of the “growth angels.
  9. Long-Term Interest Rates: In February, he said that a recovering economy could push long-term interest rates beyond 3.5 percent
  10. Stock Market: He predicted the stock market would go up if Trump was elected.

Record Synopsis

Kudlow is 1-10. Point 9 is unknown.

How does one get credibility with that kind of record?

  • Wall Street likes bullish forecasts no matter how wrong they turn out to be. Thus Wall Street approves all of those but number 6. That's a near-perfect 9 out of 10.
  • Trump is only concerned about points 7 thru 10. Kudlow is a perfect 4 for 4.

Camera Proven

Kudlow has another huge plus, as cleverly noted by the Boston Herald: Kudlow is Camera-Proven.

The man is near-perfect for the job, but there could be trouble.

What more could you possibly ask? Just one "little" thing.

Free Trade

Kudlow criticized Trump’s trade agenda before his election and more recently labelled his tariffs as tax hikes and prosperity killers.

He’s joined other economists in warning they put at risk 5 million jobs in industries that use steel.

If Kudlow does not change his tune on tariffs, he will be gone in short order.

Prediction

My guess? Kudlow changes his tune. It will add to his already immense credibility.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments
No. 1-25
stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Or, maybe he can convince The Donald to back away from that tariff stuff. That actually would help his credibility, but we'll see. Donny does change his mind now & then.

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Everyone should now realize that politics is now the ultimate "(un)Reality TV Show".

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Frank Zappa nailed it 30 years ago when he said "Politics is the entertainment department of the Military Industrial Complex."

gordon123
gordon123

Woah whats wrong with point 4?

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock

Editor

We had a huge junk bond collapse and many bankruptcies in the oil industries. There was no boom as JKKudlow predicted