Labour Gaining at Expense of Liberal Democrats

-edited

UK Polls are tightening. Labour picked up support at expense of Liberal Democrats and undecided voters.

There is a definite tightening in the UK Polls for the election on December 12.

Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster

That table suggests Labour has picked up nearly a point from the Tories, a small fraction from the Liberal Democrats and presumably the rest from undecided voters and new voter registrations.

However, note the Deltapoll outlier.

It's highly unlikely the Liberal Democrats picked up 5 percentage points on Nov 23 from the prior polls back on November 16.

And speaking of which, November 16 is more than a bit stale.

Poll vs Prior Poll by Same Pollster Excluding Deltapoll

If we exclude Deltapoll we get a better approximation of what's happening.

That set of data points suggests Labour picked up a point from the Liberal democrats, 0.67 percentage points from the Tories, and 0.83 percentage points from undecided voters or newly registered voters.

I think we can do a bit better yet.

Most Recent 8 Polls

The last 8 polls show a 3.0 percentage point gain for Labour with 2.25 PP coming from the Liberal Democrats, 0.50 PP from the Tories and the rest from undecided or new voters.

Last Three Polls

  1. Panelbase was on Nov-27-28, Spread 8 PP
  2. ComRes was on Nov 25-26, Spread 7 PP
  3. YouGov was on Nov 25-26, Spread 11 PP

Voter registration ended November 26.

Those polls largely reflect any last minute surge in voters.

Not About Brexit

On November 26, Telegraph writer Philip Johnston wrote The big issue at this election isn't Brexit – it's Jeremy Corbyn

Does that sound familiar?

It should.

On November 19, I proposed Fear of Corbyn Outweighs Fear of Brexit

This was my opening comment "This election is no longer primarily about Brexit, it's primarily about Corbyn."

Last Desperate Act

Also consider Jeremy Corbyn Goes for Broke With Last Desperate Act, US Democrats Take Note

Synopsis

The support for the Tories seems solid. The question is whether or not the Liberal Democrats continue their collapse and whether Labour continues to pick up undecided.

Of course, there is also a turnout issue.

We are no longer in blowout territory but 8 PP would likely give the Tories a comfortable majority.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (28)
No. 1-10
avidremainer
avidremainer

The Libdems have been very disappointing, I thought they'd come out like a bat out of hell, Swinson has been a damp sqib and they haven't registered with the public. Labour have come out with a magnificent bribe. They have said they will compensate the WASPI women in full.WASPI women were born in the early 1950s and fully expected to retire at 60. With monumental incompetence the Tories increased their retirement age to 66 in one go and without giving adequate notice. This action pissed off approximately 4m women in their sixties. It was and is a gross injustice. I'm not saying that Labour scooped all their votes but they will get a large proportion of them. Who could refuse up to £40,000?

Bagger
Bagger

Lib Dems are not performing well. Labour are fighting hard and somehow they are keeping the news away from Brexit. Rightly or wrongly many people are beginning to believe in their impossible promises and unfounded scare tactics. Will next week's NATO summit in London save Boris with great photo opportunities as a world leader? Or will the protests and anti Trump brigade grab all the headlines? Tricky week ahead.

BaronAsh
BaronAsh

Swinson's 15 minutes were up a while ago. She just doesn't know it - and maybe never will. Very little self awareness there.

The WASPI business might well have a sting. Voters in general are easily manipulated by 'wedge' issues like this because they involve specifics which are always more compelling than airy-faerie abstractions which most campaign speeches end up droning on and on and on and on about. Like every time Boris says 'Let's get Brexit done!" the last two words are drowned out with yawns, the next question, boos or cheers.

In the end, though, I think the undecided or waffling types are going to go for Boris's side because they are actually offering a reasonably clear path - certainly in terms of logic and presentation. Everyone else is sort of 'more of the same' in terms of perpetuating endless argument.

Personally, I think B has run a lousy, gutless and boring campaign. He had a chance to raise the bar and include the general population in an intelligent consideration of Brexit and the nature of conservative versus somewhat socialist-style governance. He has failed. That said, if he had tried, the press would have skewered him with unfair one-liner quotes and suchlike so he has probably done the right thing.

So boring it is, and perhaps - ultimately - boring it should be.

(PS, this was supposed to be a reply to Avidremainers post beginning " The Libdems have been very disappointing,...."

Scooot
Scooot

I think a more serious threat to the Tory lead is Labour’s plan to target regions by launching regional manifestos. They’ll be marketing specific excesses to local regions highlighting how those people would directly benefit at first from their borrow & spend plans. I hope the conservatives have some last minute surprises for a final push.

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

The WASPI women bribe is a potential game changer - 3 million possible votes being bought with phantom money.

As for all the rest of the Labour manifesto and programme, it's very reminiscent of Michael Foot's offering in 1983. That manifesto later became known as "the longest suicide note in history".

Expat
Expat

Corbyn is an unfortunate leader for Labour. Without him this would most certainly be simply a "referendum" on Brexit and Labour would sweep the elections.
Despite the propaganda and scare-mongering from Trumpturds, Republicans and various ignorant right-wing thugs, a Corbyn victory will not turn the UK into a communist regime. That is purely the adolescent fantasy of uneducated, xeonophobic, racist, right-wing white people.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Corbyn is a marxist nutcase - period With a sufficient majority he would indeed try to emulate the "success" of Venezuela

Mish
Mish

Editor

Swinson was a disaster in one of the debates or one-on-ones I did not watch it but there was near universal agreement on that point - even in the Guardian which adores her. This helped Labour

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

It gets ever tighter. The Labour squeeze on LibDems and Greens is still in progress and tactical voting can be in play until the last minute.

Of course, there is no guarantee for anything. Still, I don't see desperation on the Labour side. The radical spending promises were planned well in advance. The revulsion of the establishment was expected including the "anti-semite" smear campaign. Either it does work or it doesn't but they are on the track. The Tory campaign is much more problematic. BoJo is in a vacuum and just wants to wait it out with his single message. Alibi manifesto, dodged debates and interviews...

HenryV
HenryV

I will say this once and once only.

Nobody trusts Boris.

If he belatedly does some sort of deal with Farage and Farage publicly endorses him, then he might just regain the trust he lost about three weeks ago when instead of trying to engineer a no deal Brexit he decided to be a smartass and call an election instead. I SAID AT THE TIME THAT A QUICK SCOUT AROUND SITES NORMALLY SYMPATHETIC TO JOHNSON HAD SHOWN SUPPORT FOR HIM FALLING OFF A CLIFF. I stand by that statement.

Either the conservatives do a deal with the Brexit party, even now; or it will be a hung parliament. End of.