Last Four Brexit Polls Split: Turnout of Age 18-35 Likely the Key

If you give the nod to phone polls, Remain is in the lead. Nonetheless, let’s take a deeper look.

by Mish

Four new Brexit polls came out today.

  1. An online poll by Opinium was slightly in favor of Leave.
  2. An online poll by TNS was slightly in favor of Leave.
  3. An online poll by YouGov was slightly in favor of Remain.
  4. A phone poll by ComRes shows a 6 point lead for Remain.

Brexit Polls Final Tally

The surge for leave peaked on June 13 or so, before the Jo Cox murder. Many claim “I told you so.”

While I cannot dispute the peak, what happened next is highly debatable. It is likely Jo Cox amplified the expected snapback.

Quotable Quotes

Unlikely the Final Say: Comres: Andrew Hawkins, Chairman of ComRes, said: “As anticipated, the final campaign week has seen a boost for the status quo. But if Remain win, as now appears likely, it will be a victory lacking enthusiasm. Support for Remain is broad and shallow, with Remain voters responding most to warnings about the negative economic risks of voting to Leave. In contrast, support for Leave is deeper but narrower. The burning question now is whether Remain’s win will be of a sufficient margin to settle the issue of EU membership ‘for a generation’, as David Cameron put it. The visceral mood of the campaign, the negative messaging and the likely closeness of the outcome all make it unlikely that this is the end.”

Historical Imputations From ORB: “Rather than excluding those who are still undecided, ORB has opted to impute their voting preference by three to one in favour of Remain driven primarily by the theory that undecided voters tend to vote in favour of the status quo as they haven’t been sufficiently persuaded by the argument for a change. This analysis suggests a result of 54% Remain, 46% Leave.”

Likelihood to Vote

In ORB’s final poll, not only did the likelihood of the two most likely age groups to vote Remain rise dramatically, the likelihood of the most likely age group to vote Leave fell.

On top of that, ORB imputed a 3-1 advantage for Remain on most undecided voters, leaving a mere 2% truly “undecided”.

ORB may be right or wrong, but it does come down to this:

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

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