Lovey-Dovey Interpretation of Powell Speech Sends Stocks Flying

Jerome Powell said interest rates are "just below" neutral. The market reacted as if the Fed is nearly done hiking.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech today on the Federal Reserve's Framework for Monitoring Financial Stability sent the stock market flying today.

Here's the key paragraph:

"About three years ago the FOMC judged that the interests of households and businesses, of savers and borrowers, were no longer best served by such extraordinarily low rates. We therefore began to raise our policy rate gradually toward levels that are more normal in a healthy economy. Interest rates are still low by historical standards, and they remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy‑‑that is, neither speeding up nor slowing down growth. My FOMC colleagues and I, as well as many private-sector economists, are forecasting continued solid growth, low unemployment, and inflation near 2 percent. "

The key words are "just below neutral". The market's apparent interpretation is that the Fed is about done hiking.

The Wall Street Journal noted Mr. Powell appeared to retreat from a comment he made in early October that described the Fed’s benchmark rate-setting as a “long way” from a neutral level.

1929 Flashback

In his speech Powell made reference to 1929.

For Economic Club of New York trivia buffs, I will note that the second ever presentation to this club by a Federal Reserve official was about this very topic. The date was March 18, 1929. Weeks before, the Fed had issued a public statement of concern over stock market speculation, and had provided guidance frowning on bank funding of such speculation. William Harding, a former Fed Chair and then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, defended the Fed's actions in his talk. He argued that, while the Fed should not act as the arbiter of correct asset prices, it did have a primary responsibility to protect the banking system's capacity to meet the credit needs of households and businesses. At the meeting, critics argued that public statements about inflated asset prices were "fraught with danger;" that the nation's banks were so well managed that they should not "face public admonition"; and, more generally, that the Fed was "out of its sphere." Of course, Harding spoke just a few months before the 1929 stock market crash, which signaled the onset of the Great Depression.

The implied message here is the Fed won't let another crash happen again.

Fed Monitoring Triggers

Powell stated the Fed was "Monitoring Likely Triggers for Financial Distress."

Powell's own assessment: "My own assessment is that, while risks are above normal in some areas and below normal in others, overall financial stability vulnerabilities are at a moderate level."

The implied message is the Fed has everything under control.

Valuations and Forward PE's

Looking across the landscape of major asset classes, we see some classes for which valuations seem high relative to history. For example, even after standard adjustments for economic conditions, valuations on riskier forms of corporate debt and commercial properties are in the upper ends of their post-crisis distributions, although they are short of the levels they hit in the pre-crisis credit boom. We see no major asset class, however, where valuations appear far in excess of standard benchmarks as some did, for example, in the late 1990s dot-com boom or the pre-crisis credit boom.

The asset class that gets the most attention day-to-day is, of course, the stock market. Today, equity market prices are broadly consistent with historical benchmarks such as forward price-to-earnings ratios. It is important to distinguish between market volatility and events that threaten financial stability. Large, sustained declines in equity prices can put downward pressure on spending and confidence. From the financial stability perspective, however, today we do not see dangerous excesses in the stock market.

PE Silliness

Referencing forward PE's is a complete joke. Forward PE's always look good at market peaks and they always look horrendous at recession bottoms when sales are dismal.

Cyclically adjusted PEs smooth out tops and bottoms. The Shiller CAPE shows market valuations today are about where they were in 1929.

Eternal Vigilance

In his speech conclusion, Powell offered these lines: "Eternal vigilance is the price of financial stability. We will publish these reports regularly as part of our vigilance."

The implied message is that not only does the Fed have everything under control, it's also exercising "eternal vigilance" so that it stays that way.

Eternal Vigilance My Ass

The Fed blew major bubbles in 2000, 2007, and again now.

  • Greenspan failed to recognize the dotcom bubble. Instead he embraced a "productivity miracle".
  • Bernanke repeatedly denied there was a housing bubble.
  • Yellen and Powell both failed to spot obvious stock market bubbles.

Eternal vigilance my ass. These alleged wizards could not spot a flamingo in a pen full of turkeys.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments
No. 1-17
MorrisWR
MorrisWR

The public is full of lemmings who believe the financial media hype about the Fed and stock prices. Near term the Dow on an intraday basis had lows of 24,122 on 10/29 and 24,268 on 11/23. Since 11/23 the Dow had already been rising. The Dow rose from the low of 24,122 on 10/29 to a high of 26,277 on 11/8 before dropping to the second swing low on 11/23. The first up swing was almost twice as large as what has occurred since 11/23 (so far).

The day of Powell's speech saw a smaller daily move (low to high) than the intraday low/high swing on 11/15. Nobody mentions these other days that can be easily found on a simple chart. I trade the Dow and these stories always make me laugh. Suckers fall for the hype of financial media and their "reasons" for moves. Markets move because people herd and they are either fearful or greedy. Mass psychology and herding is neither efficient nor rational. Take a look at the Dow the day following the speech. These events cause some short term traders to change their trades intraday but the net effect is meaningless. I will change my intraday trades just as the others do if I am in any positions intraday. You follow the trend or you get hammered.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

We are at the end of a long term credit and debt super cycle. See John Mauldin and Ray Dalio's theses on this. The Fed will be trapped once the economy gets to stall speed. We saw the dollar break the buck in 2008 and credit contracting but if the comorbidity of private and public debt hit at the same time it will be worse than the 1930s.

hergastul
hergastul

Hi Mish,

I'd like to know what's your take on Martin Armstrong's theory regarding the US stock market, i.e that we are at the end of a cycle where trust in government's debt is disappearing, which should lead to the flight of capital from Public to Private, from bonds to equity, leading to stock markets going up in the "most hated bull market" in history. Can this counterbalance standard anticipations of high PE ratios and market krach ahead? Thanks for your time,

gregggg
gregggg

Ted R
Ted R

It is 1929 all over again except with tons more debt.

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