Marine Le Pen's National Rally Ahead of Macron in European Parliament Elections

An Ifop poll shows Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is ahead of French President Macron's En Marche in EP elections.

A European Parliament elections poll by Ifop shows Marine Le Pen's National Rally Party Leads Macron's En Marche.

  • Marine Le Pen has 21% of the voting intentions, an increase of four points compared to the last survey of 30 and 31 August.
  • Macron's En Marche accounts for 19% of voting intentions, down one point from August. The favorable rating of Macron is down to 21%, the lowest since his election in May 2017.
  • Support for Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of insubordinate La France, fell to 11%
  • 13% of voters would vote for the Republicans, a decrease of two points from August.
  • The Socialist Party has 7.5% of voting intentions.

Eurointelligence Comments

> By pitching his progressive forces against nationalists, Macron has set the scene for the European elections not only at the EU level but also at home. With her advance in the polls she now threatens to get her revenge for being outsmarted by Macron in the second round of the French presidential elections last year.

> Le Pen winning the European elections next year is not so unlikely. There is a certain Macron fatigue amongst voters, the economy and unemployment figures are not showing any signs of change. Higher taxes on diesel are hitting in particular those rural voters that have less affinity to Macron to begin with. And finally, Europe features lower as a priority among French voters, who might well use the elections next year to settle their accounts with Macron.

> There will be a counter-wave too: all those who are disappointed or hold a grudge against Macron but will do everything to prevent the RN from coming first may now mobilize. It may not be as massive as the mobilization in the run-off for the presidential election between Jacques Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, but still it may be decisive.

> The question then is whether it will enough and whether Macron has what it takes to get his group to the finishing line. Macron's strategy is a massive gamble with unbalanced risks: his chances to win are still uncertain but the consequences if he loses are much more certain, as that would polarize the country even more. Macron's long march to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the WWI armistice may appeal to some of those lost voters, but it will still be a long march to win the European elections next May.

Those who thought Marine Le Pen would vanish into the sunset humiliated, thought wrong.

Meanwhile, the splintering of Europe continues.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (4)
No. 1-3
2banana
2banana

Don't worry. Liberals and progressives will call her a nazi too.

And the French fake legacy news media will run 24/7 news stories against her.

Maybe they will find a "victim" that she threw rocks at some boys in the 6th grade...

Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach

So more than 1 voter in 4 did not indicate support for any of the named parties. Or kept their voting intentions to themselves? Polling has its limits, as we all have learned.

JL1
JL1

Macron has run a tight immigration policy on the France-Italy border just like leftist Hollande before him since summer of 2015.

France stops migrants at the border and tells them to stay in Italy, If migrants sneak into France French border police return them back to Italy, French border police inspect all trains between France and Italy on the first stop inside France and remove migrants and send them back to Italy.

France does NOT accept asylum claims at the border, at ports of entry or inside France. France only takes asylum applications in French at local government offices that have a specialized office to leave asylum applications. Some localities do NOT have this office at all.

There is NO REASON why Trump could NOT copy France's policy regarding asylum claims and use it at the US-Mexico border.

The difference between Le Pen's National Rally and Macron's En Marche is that Macron wants EU wide rules for asylum seekers and Macron wants to integrate existing migrants already in France while Le Pen would NOT give EU power and Le Pen wants to start returning migrants back home who are not employed and who no longer need protection and Le Pen also wants to deport all the foreign criminals.

For this French Media calls Le Pen and National Rally racist.

This is funny considering Macron's border policies against Italy would be called racist in Germany...