Massive 14,840 Coronavirus Case Jump in Single Day

Mish

Yesterday China reported fewer than 2,000 new cases. Today it's nearly 15,000.

If you thought there was a slowdown in coronavirus cases, you thought wrong. Instead, there was under-reporting as most if us realized all along.

Worldometer Stats

  • There are currently 60,286 confirmed cases and 1,367 deaths from the Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak as of February 13, 2020, 01:45 GMT.
  • "Total Cases" = total cumulative count (60,286). This figure therefore includes deaths and recovered/discharged patients (cases with an outcome).

Today China Confirms 14,840 New Cases, 242 Additional Deaths.

The rise in cases comes as Chinese officials broadened their definition of confirmed cases. Now, lung imaging can be used to diagnose the virus in a suspected patient, in addition to the standard nucleic acid tests, according to AFP.

Chinese officials said 13,332 of the new cases and just over half the new death toll can be attributed to the new classification, AFP reported.

There really was not such a jump, just better reporting and methodology.

Other Items of Note

  • CDC confirms 14th coronavirus case in U.S. This is the second person at the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar to test positive for the virus.
  • World's biggest technology trade show canceled due to coronavirus. The Global System for Mobile Communications Association, or GSMA, has held the annual trade show in Barcelona, Spain, since 2006. GSMA CEO John Hoffman announced the association's decision to cancel this year's show in a press release on Wednesday, saying it would reconvene in 2021. The show typically attracts over 100,000 people from around the world.
  • World Health Organization says it was not pressured to praise China. When asked directly if he was pressured by China to support their response, Ghebreyesus told reporters at a press conference on Wednesday that the "facts speak for themselves." [Indeed they do. The WHO is corrupt and incompetent]
  • CDC has yet to be given direct access to China's data. "CDC stands ready to send staff to China … but we haven't been invited yet," said CDC director Dr. Nancy Messonnier, noting that the World Health Organization has a team in China that is being given access to the raw data.
  • WHO: Outbreak in China "reducing," and outside China it's "very manageable". [That tidbit came before this latest 14,800 case update.]
  • Virus forces delay of Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix.

Faulty Test Kits

The CDC says Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States Are Flawed.

Some of the coronavirus testing kits sent to state laboratories around the country have flaws and do not work properly, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

Obviously, a state wouldn’t want to be doing this test and using it to make clinical decisions if it isn’t working as well, as perfectly, at the state as it is at C.D.C.,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

At a news conference on Wednesday morning, Dr. Messonnier said that test kits had been shipped to more than 30 other countries, but later in the day said that she was mistaken, and that the international shipments had been held back because of the flaw.

The flawed test kits are a separate issue from the mislabeled samples in San Diego that led officials to discharge from a hospital a woman who was sick from the coronavirus.

Jim Bianco Update

Case Count on Log Scale

Confirmed Active Cases Log Scale

Delayed Positive

Rate of Change

Understatement of the Day Award

Things may not always go as smoothly as we may like,” said CDC director Dr. Nancy Messonnier.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (117)
No. 1-31
Latkes
Latkes

BNN stated as source this: http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml

What it says is that from now on, they will also add "clinically diagnosed" patients to the total. In other words, until now, they were only counting people with lab results (just like everybody else). Now they will count using superficial symptoms, so that people can get medical help even without tests.

Out of the 14,840, there were 13,332 "clinically diagnosed" people. Based on symptoms, they may have the coronavirus, or flu or something else. It's not lab confirmed.

Using the original criteria (lab confirmed, like everywhere else), there were 1,508 new cases today. Less than yesterday.

I would also like to point out that the chart, as is, is meaningless, given the change in criteria.

Esclaro
Esclaro

Stock market is setting new records every day. Gold is headed for the toilet. Trump has a lock on a second term. What’s not to love?

njbr
njbr

...Total Cases = total cumulative count (60,286)...

No, massive, no, gigantic under-count--look at the step in the graph and fill in the other dates to an approximate slope and total cases is about 160,000.

And that doesn't take into account the less ill, or those dying at home.

I will repeat my comment from earlier today....

....The coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, Dr. Sylvie Briand, head of WHO’s Global Infectious Hazard Preparedness division, told reporters on Monday. About 15% of the people who contract the virus have ended up with pneumonia, with 3% to 5% of all patients needing intensive care, she said....

And this is the real problem that has produced the chaos in China-- the 3 to 5% needing intensive care.

For example, Minnesota, a state pretty well served by medicine has a population of about 5 million. If 50% of the people had some form of the virus, that would be 2.5 million people. Of that, 3 to 5% might require quarantined intensive care (75,000 to 125,000 people). Based upon the typical stay of at least 10 days to recover, that would be 750,000 to 1,250,000 patient-days of quarantined care required.

Well, in Minnesota in 2017, there were approximately 500,000 to 600,000 patient-days of care over the year. This was for all cases in all hospitals (non-quarantined for the vast majority).

How does a medical system serve a case-load that would go from 500 thousand patient-days to 1.25 million or 1.75 million ? Not very well. And throw in the quarantine requirements. How would that mix with the standard patient population that has the normal cancers, heart problems, broken bones, bullet wounds, etc, etc ?

Chaos is the only possible result....

By the way, Wuhan had about 6 million people after the reported 5 million fled.

Buckle-up boys!

Cerrie
Cerrie

Thank you for continuing to question the information coming from the Chinese government. It is clear that they cannot be trusted to report the truth.
There are so many questions about this virus, not just the numbers of those infected and dead, but also about its origin.
As many have pointed out, the BL4 lab in Wuhan is not far from the market the virus is supposed to have originated from. This lab probably had a leak of a bioweapon. There are serious questions about the research labs in China and the security of the viruses they are studying.
Recently two researchers at Harvard: the head of the Chemistry Department, Charles Leiber, and a Chinese national, Zaosong Zheng, doing research in pathology at Harvard's lab at Beth Deaconess Medical Center were arrested for possible espionage ties to China. Zheng was arrested for trying to smuggle biological research items out of a Boston lab and into China, aboard a commercial flight.
The kind of genetic research Zheng was doing can be used for medical and vaccine purposes but also for bioweapons research. It seems clear that China was actively trying to bribe U.S. researchers, and to infiltrate their labs to steal research that could be very dangerous if not handled properly.
It is worth asking questions about the level of security and safety of Wuhan's BL4 lab, the viruses there and all of Chinas labs, especially when one of the top Chinese research scientists is trying to smuggle biological matter into China for testing in his lab, by hiding it in his socks.
If we are not investigating the origins of the virus and these espionage incidents, then more pandemics will follow.

Klagorio
Klagorio

This viral infection in the USA is flattening because of the Western Sanitation methods! In Asia it will keep growing at a fast rate because of their sanitation methods. OUR ONLY WORRY IS THAT IT DOES MUTATE AND BECOME MORE VIRULENT AND TRANSMITTED IN OTHER WAYS!

FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

Lack of accurate info sharing is THE problem.

Seems as nobody knows what's really going on.

It is sensible to track "lab confirmed" cases given we also know how many cases were lab tested and the credibility of lab testing (at each time - let's say daily).

It is reasonable to publish stats for clinically diagnosed patients given there is visibility to the criteria used.

Not only it is difficult to maintain the needed consistency and metadata detail, but there are question about the integrity of the whole data collection and publishing process.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

In my mind, the inclusion of clinically diagnosed cases with the total confirmed infected is a good move. Including pneumonia deaths that were clinically diagnosed but not confirmed with a lab test is also a good move. No doubt China's doctors have seen enough patients that they can tell what the pneumonia from SARS-COV-2 virus looks like on a CT scan. (W.H.O. almost named the virus SARS-B. I was close.) I applaud China's decision to include these cases with their totals. Bravo!

It is a serious concern that the lab tests used for conclusive diagnosis thus far have given significant false negatives. Dr. Anthony Fauci mentioned this problem in the first press conference when the President's Coronavirus Task Force announced quarantines and travel restrictions with regard to the U.S., and I was surprised nobody made a big deal about that.

This, ladies and gentlemen, is why the passengers and crew on the Diamond Princess cannot be tested to allow them to get off the ship. Barring a better test, they are not going to be able to get off unless they stop having new cases or unless their respective nation states agree to arrange for dedicated evacuation and transport to quarantine facilities within their home countries. Those people are in a seriously bad situation.

Greggg
Greggg

One guy comes back from Wuhan to Toronto and later they confirm he has the corona virus. Toronto area schools cancels classes.

Bohm-Bawerk
Bohm-Bawerk

a couple of thoughts from an MD:
1). they bumped the numbers because the external monitors are gearing up with the WHO lead team coming to China, they can't hide this completely. Plus the 250% increase in deaths in 1 day isn't the headline with this bump in numbers. Maybe they are hoping to obscure the death number.
2). verifying the cases today via a CT is not nearly as accurate as doing PCR lab testing. CT would only show cases with obvious pneumonia, not a mildly symptomatic case as we have seen many patients have. A few days ago they were saying, if the person tests positive via lab but is asymptomatic we won't count them - which of course would be under reporting and missing a lot of those folks.
3). If it takes the Prime Minister of Japan to declare that all of Japan's resources will be used to do PCR testing at 1000 cases a day, to get the cruise ship cleared, China can't possibly keep up. Even the CDC seems to be struggling with a few hundred cases they are watching. Unfortunately China must be overwhelmed.
4). The CDC is warning the public that it is moving to the idea that this virus is coming here, as are the officials in Great Britain. This is a change in their stance from previous days.
5). I find it amazing that there are 0 cases in Africa or South America and even though I agree with our great leader on this particular idea of closing off China, I doubt that will work. Maybe a week or 2 ago that could've worked for us if the entire world sealed off China completely but this will show up elsewhere and it will have already spread. Too many people have 'mild' disease or are asymptomatic carriers, so all the temperature checks are just BS like airport screening - to make us feel safe. Doctors in other countries (or even the US) with a flu case in some elderly guy won't be thinking - let's check for nCov2019. By the time they figure it out there will be an outbreak of 50 or 100 cases and by the time they catch that, it will have already spread. for the vast majority of people this looks like a common cold at the worst.
6).Hopkins website has been a great resource for tracking. The graphs were looking great until today's number change- nice log graphs.
I had been patiently waiting for a while for my short options calls though with the market ignoring all this, I had to go in partially with options expiring in Sept and January. I will gamble more on shorting this bull market if it keeps rising, I don't want a recession but I believe this will be the black swan this time. I doubt China will be opening for business anytime soon.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

What's the death rate? Do we reliably know this?

wootendw
wootendw

"I find it amazing that there are 0 cases in Africa or South America and even though I agree with our great leader on this particular idea of closing off China, I doubt that will work."

I read a story somewhere that 1500 people a day travel from China to Africa, most going to Ethiopia which is taking passengers' temperatures.

Greggg
Greggg

For the past 3 days youtube has been tagging all the independent video producers with a link to WHO if they post a video on the Corona Virus, but all the CNN, MSNBC, ect, MSM are not tagged when they post corona info. Let's see what happens to these videos/independent producers.

Jackula
Jackula

Quite obviously there is a lack of test kits as well as accurate test kits, China probably isn't being nefarious but they are simply reporting CONFIRMED cases....it's our media that is not pointing out these are confirmed cases only!

Sechel
Sechel

China changed methodology .Are infections rising or is China now more accurately reporting the numbers more quickly. I don't think this is proof of the crisis escalating. It may be a data glitch in China is reporting cases now which would not have been identified for several days or more under the previous method. If so expect the number of new cases to decline shortly. This could be analogous to a change in how CPI or BLS numbers are produced. It's also quite possible that previously cases were under-reported.

providing excerpts and link to the reuters article which I think does a better job of describing what occurred.

Hubei had previously only allowed infections to be confirmed by RNA tests, which can take days to process. RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries genetic information allowing for identification of organisms like viruses.

But it has begun using quicker computerised tomography (CT) scans, which reveal lung infections, the Hubei health commission said, to confirm virus cases and isolate them faster.

As a result, another new 14,840 cases were reported in the central province on Thursday, from 2,015 new cases nationwide a day earlier. But excluding cases confirmed using the new methods, the number of new cases rose by only 1,508.

“Presumably, there are deaths which occurred in people who did not have a lab diagnosis but did have a CT,” she told Reuters. “It is important that these also be counted.”

kram
kram

Could you please elaborate on what "western" and "eastern" sanitation methods constitute and how one prevents spread and the other does not?

thimk
thimk

@ErikSTownsend is spot on . Corona viruses are like Baskin Robbins , 31 flavors . This one is rocky road. Until accurate reporting data is recorded/correlated/disseminated the characteristics of this nasty bug is yet indeterminable. And if this
is a made in china 2025 engineered bio weapon (USA knowledge transfer enabled), the bug will not behave like earlier models. AND (there's more) . Xi got WHO is his back pocket. SOooooo all conjecture is just SWAG . WHos on first, Xi on second,I don't know on third.

njbr
njbr

My guess is that, if containment holds, the the current out-break will rip through quarantined area by April and infect anyone that is susceptible to the virus--hence the China government statements as to the timing.

This says a few of things--first, the transmission of the virus is pretty rapid and unstoppable in a population. Second, if it is in the population you are a part of, you will get it (asymptomatic, mild, moderate or severe). Third, containment of cases will not occur without dictatorial oversight and enforcement.

Th unknown question--IF quarantine holds, IF all possible people in quarantine area have had the disease--is transmission still possible through residual virus in those people?

sangell
sangell

Twitter commentator Harry Chen PhD has shifted his video coverage from sardonic comments on police interacting with the citizens of Wuhan to the number of fire videos posted to Wechat. Something is going on in China and insurance fraud comes to mind.

shamrock
shamrock

Thanks for using Log Scale charts!

ksdude69
ksdude69

They decided to tell 20% of the truth to make themselves look legit. I love the plant that went back to work this week and already has the entire place in quarantine and no one can go home. Probably making them work 24/7 as well. Fk China.

bIlluminati
bIlluminati

Quick estimate: 3% outside of China, non-smoker, 12% outside of China, smoker, 5% China, non-smoker, 25% China, smoker.

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

Apparently "SARS-COV-2" is the scientific name for this coronavirus and not the WHO name for this virus. According to Dr. Michael J. Ryan in today's WHO press conference, "The naming process for the virus is not done by WHO. The virus is named according to its phylogenetic links with other viruses." He then explained that WHO named the disease the virus causes "COVID-19" because they believe that name better "relates the virus to the world." I guess they were not comfortable with people calling this "SARS-2?" I prefer the scientific naming method.

I am going to start calling this illness "SARS-2" just to annoy the WHO.

klausmkl
klausmkl

Its a weak hand flush..into the .......

Carl_R
Carl_R

Here are a couple other news stories that I haven't seen commented on:

  1. Two Russian women who were being held in quarantine have escaped:
  2. Communist party officials in Wuhan were sacked over the crisis. (I wonder, were these the ones that approved the mass banquet in January?)
Carl_R
Carl_R

I tried to post this a couple times today, with a link to the article, but my post vanished. I'll try again, without the link. CNN appalled me today with an article about the Coronavirus that I thought was extraordinarily unhelpful. In describing it they said it was basically like a cold, but with a chance that if you were elderly, or immune compromised, you might develop symptoms that were like pneumonia or bronchitis.

Umm...no, just no. While elderly, and immune compromised people are more at risk, anyone can develop severe symptoms, and moreover, anyone has a chance of dying of viral pneumonia. The doctor that found the first cases died of it in his 30s.

RayLopez
RayLopez

@Carl_R - if you are saying the ratio is not constant, then you agree with me, and we are in violent agreement. I agree the ratio cannot be constant, and I was under the apparently mistaken impression that you disagreed.

Carl_R
Carl_R

106 Undead in Wuhan! There were 1426 dead in Wuhan yesterday, but today only 1318 of them are still dead. I guess they need to accelerate the pace of cremations. ;)

CautiousObserver
CautiousObserver

A sign of the times on February 13th, 2020:

Dr Robert Redfield, director of the CDC in the U.S. interviewing on CNN: "So far we have been able to contain it, but I think this virus is probably with us beyond this season or beyond this year and I think, eventually, the virus will find a foothold and we will get community based transmission [in the U.S.] and you can start to think of it, in a sense, like seasonal flu. The only difference is, we don't understand this virus...Right now there is no evidence to me that this outbreak is at all under control [in China]. It is definitely not controlled...Our whole issue right now is, as I said, aggressive containment to try to give us more time...It's going to take 1 to 2 years to get that [a vaccine] probably developed and out; to prepare the health system to be able to be flexible enough to deal with the potential second major cause of respiratory illness."

Stock market the next day: "So, people will be making and buying iPhones again in 2 weeks? Cool."

Cerrie
Cerrie

Scientists at DARPA and the Los Alamos National Lab estimate a much higher rate of infection for the novel coronavirus: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1

They bump the RO up from 2.2-2.7 to 4.7-6.6.

"How contiguous the 2019-nCoV is in other countries remains to be seen. If the value of R0 is as high in other countries, our results suggest that active and strong population-wide social distancing efforts, such as closing down transportation system, schools, discouraging travel, etc., might be needed to reduce the overall contacts to contain the spread of the virus."


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