Men in Gray Suits Set Trap: Theresa May Will Be Gone by End of July

Theresa May will be gone by the end of July says Robert Peston of Peston Politics. Eurointelligence agrees.

There have been many rumors of May's demise, yet she is still Prime Minister. Peston's theory is well founded and Eurointelligence agrees.

Please consider 'New PM by the Summer' claim Tory MPs as Theresa May faces more calls to resign.

"There will be, one way or another, a way of getting her out in June and there will be a leadership election which will see a new Tory leader and prime minister appointed by the summer."

That is what ITV News Political Editor Robert Peston says some Tory MPs told him following another meeting of the 1922 Committee, in which the Theresa May's departure was discussed.

Instead of gaining assurances from committee chairman Sir Graham Brady for details of the PM's departure, Peston was told the MPs received a "commitment" that she'll bring her deal back before Parliament before the EU elections.

Trap Set

Also consider How Tory MPs Set a Trap for May.

The 1922 executive committee thinks it has finally laid a surefire trap for the PM Theresa May - by securing a promise from her to hold the second reading of the core Brexit legislation, the Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill, before EU elections in two weeks.

The point is that either the bill passes, and she resigns as soon it becomes law (as she has promised to do), or it flops, which is what most Tories expect, and it becomes unambiguously clear that she can never deliver Brexit - in which case they will force her out in June or July.

Eurointelligence Take

May yesterday appeared to have a cut a private deal with Graham Brady, chairman of the Tory Party's 1922 committee of backbenchers. As part of it she will bring the second reading of the Withdrawal Agreement and Implementation Bill before the House of Commons before the European elections on May 23 - i.e. in less than two weeks. This time we agree with Robert Peston's analysis: either the bill passes, and she resigns; or the bill does not pass, and she resigns. They've got her, finally. Peston believes the Tories will probably initiate leadership proceedings in the beginning of June - a process that would take about two months from start to finish.

We are less confident than him about the exact timetable, but agree that May's political time is now drawing to a close. Her last chance of a dignified exit would be a deal with Corbyn. Expectations are extremely low. There are media reports that Labour is about to pull the plug on the still-ongoing talks because of a lack of progress. But, as we keep writing, both Corbyn and May are cornered and those who are hell-bent against a compromise are in a minority on both sides. One needs to consider that, by the time the Commons votes on the bill, Brexit and May's future will be disentangled. We will be in a different scenario. Two weeks is a very, very long time in politics.

Good Riddance. This is long overdue.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (3)
No. 1-2
msurkan
msurkan

I fail to see why she would resign if her bill fails to pass. She has made no commitment to resign for failure to pass a Brexit bill. The only commitment May has made is to resign IF her Brexit bill passes. It is a false assumption to believe that a further humiliating defeat attempting to pass a Brexit bill would shame May into resignation. Her defeats have already stacked high with ignominy and none of them were sufficient to cause her to resign. I don’t see why yet another defeat would be any different.

It’s instructive to see just how weak the Tories wanting her resignation are. They are asking HER to make resignation commitments since they know they don’t have the votes to oust her (or even change the 1922 committee rules for turfing leaders).

avidremainer
avidremainer

On Thursday evening last Amber Rudd, Conservative MP, cabinet member and Remainer insulted the ConservativeHome website, its members and readers. Today the Conservatives are at 11% in the polls. They are about to split.