Merkel and Macron Agree on Immigration: Just One "Minor" Problem

Purportedly there is an agreement between Merkel and Macron on the immigration issue. They forgot to ask CSU and Italy.

Tuesday afternoon I replied to an interesting Tweet on an alleged deal between France and Germany on the immigration crisis.

Mish: "The problem is the CSU will not play along with Eurozone finances."

Let's take another look, starting with Wednesday morning comments from Eurointelligence. Emphasis is mine.

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have an agreement. Whether you can call it historic, like Les Échos did, is another question. The roadmap has yet to be endorsed by other eurozone countries, and is prone to cause Merkel more trouble at home. The CSU already has called on the coalition committee to discuss the Meseberg results today. Bild reports this morning that the CSU's leadership is extremely unhappy about Merkel's acceptance of important parts of Macron's agenda. We wonder whether this might be open up another fault-line in the coalition in addition to immigration policy.

What exactly did the two decide upon for the eurozone? No big-bang reforms, no fait accompli for other member states, but broad principles for the budget and the banking union. Yes, you can call it historic in that Merkel agreed on the concept of a eurozone budget with own resources to be used to strengthen economic convergence within the eurozone. This had been a big German No in the past. It is also historic in a sense that the two decided to embark on a reform that will require a treaty change. Over the last few years, proposals were often dismissed for that reason alone.

But the size of the budget and the details of how it will work have yet to be worked out. This is left to the eurogroup, who need to come up with a proposal by the end of the year.

We were struck by the main headline in FAZ this morning: Macron supports Angela Merkel in her refugee policies. Is this true?

Macron said he agrees with Merkel that both want to achieve a harmonisation of asylum law in the EU. And their joint declaration condemns unilateral and un-coordinated action that would endanger Schengen. This is a clear snipe at Horst Seehofer's declared intention to send migrants back, starting July.

We consider this a fairly meaningless statement since progress for an EU wide deal is held up by the refusal of countries to agree to binding quotas. France is one of them, and Macron has not shifted his position. And we doubt very much that the likes of Matteo Salvini and Seehofer will be impressed by the joint declaration. Seehofer said European efforts had failed, and that it was time for domestic solutions. And Salvini has previously talked about an exit from Schengen. We are not sure what problem this would solve for him. Most of Italy's refugees do not come across the Schengen border, and he could flood the EU with unregistered refugees if he kept that border open - a much more potent weapon than a Schengen exit.

Stephan Löwenstein has an informed comment in FAZ on the role of Austria in this debate, the country that will take over the EU presidency as of July. Sebastian Kurz is a political ally of Seehofer and of Jens Spahn, Angela Merkel's conservative opponent inside the CDU. Kurz and Spahn were spotted having a coffee in a public cafe in Berlin. Vienna is also outwardly relaxed about Seehofer's threat to send back registered migrants - even though they would be sent back at the Austrian border. But Löwenstein notes that the position of the German and the Austrian right are hardly compatible, since they have different material interests.

Vienna's main focus in its EU presidency will be the protection of the EU's external border, and in particular the strengthening of Frontex. This is obviously not a project that can be implemented within a short time. Even if the European Council agreed on a road map for reform of Frontex, we doubt it would be sufficient to bring the likes of Seehofer and Salvini on board. Merkel's problem remains unresolved.

Deeper and Deeper Holes

That was all too easy to predict.

With every move, Merkel keeps digging deeper and deeper holes.

Immigration problems US Style

In the US, Public Outcry Forces Trump's Hand: Executive Order Prohibiting Family Separation Coming.

Here's the fundamental issue behind the problem: "There is an unlimited demand for free benefits and services."

Open borders and free benefits do not mix. For discussion, please see Trump's Immoral Immigration Tactics: What's the Libertarian View?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (17)
No. 1-17
Blacklisted
Blacklisted

The Utopian's view is "open borders + free benefits" equal more votes for Collectivist. Since we know that Collectivist do not believe in logic or math, the anti-establishment trend; represented by Brexit, Trump, Spain, and recent elections across Europe; means nothing. They don't care what people think, because it's their way (more perks and power) or the highway (prosperity). As people continue to reject the establishment, expect the screwball establishment to tighten the screws, which cause more people to reject the establishment - rinse and repeat until you get a revolution (at least in countries where the citizens will stay and fight).

Since the immigrants are fleeing countries that don't permit their citizens to posses guns, enabling them to defend themselves against rampant crime and to fight back against govt corruption. What's wrong with Denninger's suggestion - send them back to their home country with a gun and plenty of ammo to fight for THEIR country.

MntGoat
MntGoat
  1. Native Europeans have a right to self-determination in their own homelands
  2. Native Europeans have a right to control who they allow (and who they don't allow) into their countries
  3. Native Europeans have a right to remain the vast majority in their homelands in perpetuity
Kinuachdrach
Kinuachdrach

What is a "native European"? The history of the European continent has been one of continual movements of peoples for at least the last two millenia -- and probably much longer.

The Romans pushed north, the Huns pushed south, the Moors crossed the Straits of Gibraltar. The Scottish 1320 Declaration of Arbroath (which some say was a source of inspiration for the writers of the US Declaration of Independence) made the claim that the Scots had arrived in Scotland from Syria. European national boundaries have repeatedly changed dramatically; even the UK lost something like a quarter of its land area in the last century.

Change will continue in Europe -- no doubt about that. But if any group of human beings in Europe want the "right" to remain in what they see as their current homeland, they have the Responsibility to protect their borders. The big problem for Europeans, as for Americans, is that their Political Classes do not want that Responsibility.

Stuki
Stuki

A breakdown of Schengen is a real problem. Even for Germany. What a mess, having every truck, car, train and plane, wait at every little Euro border to be inspected for non-Visa carrying people.... That's capital G Grinding to a halt, right there. If the peripheral countries go that far, I can't see any other option for the Northerners, than to form their own mini-Schengen, letting their companies rebalance supply lines accordingly.