# Mish's Fearless UK Election Forecast Seat-by-Seat

Mish

**A Word About Predictions**

Predictions can make one look like a genius or a fool.

In reality, no one is a genius, just lucky. And arguably, the only thing foolish about predictions is making them in the first place. So, take my projections with a grain of salt.

But I do have a methodology. It's based on Multi-Level Regression and Poststratification (MRP).

For a discussion of MRP, please see my December 8 post Number Crunching the Polls Points to Big Tory Win.

Don't knock the idea or YouGov if you do not understand what this is all about.

**Fearless Forecast Methodology**

- I believe in YouGov's MRP methodology and so does Martin Baxter at Electoral Calculus.
- The Electoral Calculus model, at least as I understand it, uses Baxter's own MRP methodology based on an average of the latest polls.
- I have a different twist. Instead of using an average of polls, Baxter's MRP methodology with an an average of YouGov polls and enter those averages into the Electoral Calculus User-Defined Regional Predictor.

YouGov does not disclose its MRP and neither does Baxter, for obvious reasons.

**Why Use Baxter's Model?**

- No one else has user-defined calculator.
- Baxter's model performed better that YouGov's.

**Why Use YouGov Data?**

- YouGov and ComRes are the only pollsters that present region-by-region data.
- Variances in ComRes tend to be extreme.
- YouGov does frequent polls and one can average them.

**YouGov Data**

The data I entered into Electoral Calculus is from MRP Methodology, Tables and Figures on December 10.

**YouGov Regional Data**

I plugged those numbers into the Electoral Calculus Base Calculator + Scotland and then again into the regional calculator.

The former predicted a majority of 42, the latter, a majority of 40. That's a nice cross-check. I went with the latter.

**Mish's Fearless Forecast Seat-by-Seat Changes**

**Synopsis**

- Labour a Huge Loser: It picks up two seats from Plaid, a Wales independence party, but loses 38 seats elsewhere, 37 of them to the Tories the other to the Liberal Democrats.
- SNP picks up 6 seats, 5 of them from Labour, only 1 from the Tories.
- The Liberal Democrats pick up 5 seats, 4 from the Tories, 1 from Labour.

**Tactical Voting**

If the above expectations are in the ballpark, tactical voting will cost the Liberal Democrats dearly, perhaps as many as 10-15 additional seats.

Insead of 18-19% of the vote they will get 12-13% of the votes.

**For What?**

For a Tory majority and a handful of extra seats, with Jeremy Corbyn still potentially hanging on.

That's what.

By the way, 18% of 650 is 117.

Instead, I expect the Lib Dems to get about 17 seats. And the more tactical voting there is, the fewer pickups for the Lib Dems there will be.

**YouGov Model vs Mish**

The YouGov Final Projection is a Conservative Majority of 28.

As explained above, I estimate 40.

**Final Thoughts**

Any majority of 10 or greater is likely to be very stable and "Get Brexit Done".

Even 5 might suffice for 5 years because once animosity over Brexit is over, DUP will again side with the Tories in most legislative matters.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock