Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011: Fed Could Push US Into Recession

The 15-year average mortgage rate is 4.22%. The 30-year rate is 4.72%. These are the highest rates since early 2011.

Bleakley Advisory Group's Peter Boockvar says the Fed and Global Central Banks Could Push the U.S. into Recession.

Mortgage Rates Highest Since Early 2011

Mortgage News Daily sees things slightly differently but the the disagreement is over a few meaningless basis points.

According to MND, Mortgage Rates at Two-Week Lows.

Mortgage rates were slightly lower again today, but there are some caveats. First of all, the average lender wasn't in substantially better shape compared to yesterday afternoon. On top of that, bond markets (the underpinnings of mortgage rates) weakened throughout the day. If lenders were beginning their day looking at current bond market pricing, we'd likely have seen rates edge slightly HIGHER. As such, unless bonds manage to receive solid support from Asia and Europe on Monday morning, US lenders will likely be forced to bring rates a bit higher.

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30-YR FIXED - 4.75-4.875%
  • 15- YEAR FIXED - 4.25%-4.375
  • FHA/VA - 4.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender

Those rates are slightly higher than the rates posted by the St. Louis Fed.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (21)
No. 1-12
Blacklisted
Blacklisted

Did you ever consider that the people who want to hold 30-yr paper might be declining?

Bam_Man
Bam_Man

Fed WILL Push US into Recession FTFY.

ML1
ML1

FED: 1. Creates false economic growth through too low interest rates which cause massive mal-investment and a huge debt bubble.

2. Then raises rates to cause a crash.

3. Then pumps more money to the markets and again lowers interest rates to prevent the crashed economy from clearing and instead creates a muddle through where all the bankers and officials causing the previous problems continue being employed instead of being fired.

4. Repeat, repeat, repeat...

Realist
Realist

Rates will continue to edge higher for a little longer. Once they begin to slow economic growth a bit more, the Fed will pause. Growth will continue at 2% for the next few years (barring a black swan event). Inflation will continue to climb slowly, thanks to Trumps tariffs. The overall result will be stagflation; slow growth, higher inflation. The federal budget deficit will go over 1 trillion per year. I’m not sure if it will drop below 1 trillion for many years going forward.

Greggg
Greggg

We bought our house in the mid eighties and took an 11.00% mortgage.... I got it lower than prevailing rates because I put 40% down... and we felt "lucky". Of course the value went way up when interest rates fell over the years. Prices will just chip down as the interest rates rise.

Sechel
Sechel

i don't think the problem is mortgage rates which are still very low by historical standards but rather wages that haven't kept pace with home price gains

lol
lol

this "booming " economy can't handle 4% rate LMMFAO,after 25 plus trillion "officially" printed in the last decade!drop it back to .5% maybe then the "booming" economy won't collapse on itself!

RonJ
RonJ

There's that word could, again. The FED artificially holding the FED rate at ZERO to .25% for years on end, WILL cause a recession again.

KidHorn
KidHorn

I bought my first house with a 9.5% 30 year fixed, I got a great deal because the mortgage was assumable. A great selling point when rates would go back up to 12%, like they were a year earlier. Of course houses were way cheaper back then.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

This boom is built on a house of cards. Like many before it. Unfortunately you have to dance until the music stops. Just stay near the door.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

From pete boockvar we no longer live in business cycles but credit cycles. It will be interesting to see what tips the apple cart this time around. My guess is we finally get the bond crisis of a lifetime.

everything1
everything1

Kind of a lag, but the 30 year mortgage is back at 5%, that's still a pretty great rate, but I don't understand why the fed is hiking so quickly. Still, why would it matter, the long term trend for interest rates is down, people will buy knowing they can refinance later.