Mortgage rates moved higher today, following the Fed's much-anticipated policy announcement. Although the Fed changed quite a few words from the announcement's previous iteration (far more than normal), it wasn't the announcement itself that did the damage. Rather, it was the Fed members' economic projections, which include an assessment of where the Fed Funds Rate will likely be at the end of the next few years.
Specifically, a few of the Fed members who'd been holding out for slightly lower rates in 2018 moved their forecasts up enough to increase the odds of a 4th rate hike by December. This was already a strong possibility, but before today, those in the "3 hike" camp had a stronger case.
While the Fed's rate doesn't directly affect 30yr fixed mortgage rates, shifts in the Fed's rate hike outlook definitely do. In the bigger picture, this was a fairly minor adjustment. Moreover, rates markets were somewhat soothed by the press conference with Fed Chair Powell, which followed half an hour after the announcement.
The net effect was a slight increase in rates that leaves us a little bit closer to the 7-year highs seen in mid-May. Tomorrow morning brings more risk with the European Central Bank's policy announcement. Big moves in either direction are a possibility.
"Today's Fed Statement and Chairman Powell's press conference didn't sit well with bond markets today, as yields rose. I've been locking early as possible, this is precisely why. It's a RISING rate environment, gambling on rates dropping is less than astute," said Ted Rood, Senior Originator.
Tweets of the Day
That is worth repeating.
Inventory is always low and demand is always high at peaks. Think back to the alleged shortage in 2006 when people were standing in line overnight, in Florida for the "chance" to buy a condo in a lottery.
For "Dot Plot" discussion, please see Fed Hikes Again, Modifies Accommodation Language, Plans on 2 More Hikes in 2018.
Also note the Fed's insistence on paying interest on excess reserves is a free handout to banks.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock