My Yearbook Accuses Me of "Taking People's Life Savings": What Does Your Say?

Mike Mish Shedlock

In the wake of Kavanaugh accusations, I reviewed my high school yearbook. It seems I took my best friend's life savings.

I confess. I am accused of taking my best friend's life savings.

Moreover, I do not even deny the possibility. I can even provide evidence for the disbelievers.

Formal Investigation

No doubt this admission of guilt is shocking to my readers, but I confess, the incident is true.

It was even the subject of a formal investigation by the priests at my Catholic high school, Danville, Schlarman.

The image shows me proudly displaying a winning hand. The guy on my left (right of me in the image) with the bad look on his face is my best friend.

Shocking Details

This event happened at a Catholic "retreat". We were supposed to be praying.


I stood accused by Father Ted. It was a subpoena of first order magnitude. Father Ted demanded to know how much we were playing for.

Caught red-handed, I immediately confessed.

"Father, we were playing 2-cent ante, 15-cent limit," I replied.

Readers, I know this is shocking. And I sincerely apologize for playing poker at a Catholic retreat.

More Confessions

My yearbook is full of incriminating evidence. I will leave the names of the accusers anonymous to protect the innocent. I can make copies available if necessary. These are actual comments in my high school yearbook.

  1. "To the king of cards with many aces in the hole"
  2. "I hereby declare that I owe you $12.00 as of Aug 23, 1971"
  3. "To the luckiest kid poker" That's where it ended. I do not know who wrote that. The ink was fading and ran out.
  4. "You are the finest Euchre play in history. I will never forget all the pointers on trump"
  5. "To that good old card shark. I finally wised up and quit playing with you guys"
  6. "Mike ... I am going to clean you at poker"
  7. "I never played against you due to my thriftiness, but I always admired your gambling skills."

Outside Retreat Card Discussion

We played 15-cent limit at retreat. Outside retreat is another matter. But it was not outrageous. My favorite form of the game was 10-cent ante, $1.00 limit. High-stakes was 50-cent ante, $2.00 limit.

I did far better at $1.00 limit. Hint: think of the ante to bet ratio.

I kept detailed records, regardless of stakes.

My record at high-low games was about 90%. At straight high, it was in the low to mid 60% range. But even then, my average win was way higher than my average loss.

High-Low is easy. NEVER play for high. Seriously, I once threw away QQQ as starting three cards in 7-card stud high-low, and I assure you that is the correct play.

Amusingly, people think a pair of jacks is a good hand. JJ is NEVER good at high-low. Heck, QQQ is not good. Perhaps I can explain in an addendum.

I financed my way through college playing poker. If that sounds impossible, note that tuition at the University of Illinois was about $250 a semester in 1972.

A $150 win was over half a tuition. My average win at $2 limit was about $65. My average loss was under $20. My average win at $1.00 limit was higher and I rarely lost.

I capped my losses at $20. And I won far more than I lost, even at straight-high. Occasionally, I racked in $100 wins.

If I was ever up $40, I would quit if I dropped below +$20. I never turned a $20 ahead into a loss. This is simple money management. It's not applicable to table stakes Hold-em.

By the way, if you think you are an excellent Euchre player, most likely you are not. Understanding the rules of the game are one thing. Knowing what to do in every form of the game (two-handed, partner, 6-card bid with 4 players, three-handed) is another.

I started a book on Euchre once, but I decided there was not enough interest. I suspect no one would answer my euchre quizzes properly.

I believe I am amongst the world's best, while freely admitting overconfidence is extremely rampant. Anyone interested in a euchre quiz?

Fickle Water Color Memories

With poker and euchre discussion out of the way, let's return to point 8.

"Mike, you said my party is the best you ever went to. THAT is what I will never forget" (emphasis on THAT is hers).

The person who wrote number 8 is female. At a later reunion, she did not recall what he wrote. She forgot. Totally.

So much for "THAT".


People think they will remember things, but they don't.

Worse yet, the vast majority of people cannot self-assess.

In general, people overestimate their recollection of things as well as their abilities.

I have a near-photographic memory of some things. I know where I was sitting in grade school and high school, in most, but not all classes. I know where I was sitting and what direction I was facing, and where everyone else sat when I played critical hands at poker, bridge, and even euchre, from decades ago.

But I am damned lousy at names. Last week I called someone Jason, when his name was Josh. I live in constant fear of introductions. Even if I know a person's name stone cold, minutes before an introduction, I can stumble at the introduction.

I suspect fear of making a mistake causes mistakes. But that is not the point. Memory and self-assessment are the points.

People think they remember things accurately, but they don't, and they don't recognize what they are bad at.

Turning to the political.

Believing Ford vs Believing Ford Believes What She Says

Belief that Ford's allegations are true are vastly different than believing Ford believes what she is saying.

Memories change. They can be planted. They can be totally imaginary. They can be dreams.

In general, people believe what they want to believe.

Vivid Dreams

I have vivid dream memories.

Currently, my most frequent dreams are being chased by someone in Danville, Illinois or Mexico.

Previously, my most common dream was that of being one credit hour short of graduating. This happened very frequently after graduation and for decades after.

I would wake up, seriously wondering how the hell I was going to hide to my employer that I never graduated.

I also had frequent vivid dreams that a girl I dated in college and who broke up with me called me and wanted to get back together.

On two occasions, I was happy all morning about phone calls that never happened.

If I can believe for hours that something happened that did not come close to happening, is it not possible for someone to perpetually believe a falsehood?

Are we really supposed to believe the memory of a 15-year-old female who may have been stone drunk at the time, when there is no other evidence?

People Believe What They Want

I suspect that 70% of the alleged MeToo allegation are in fact accurate. Perhaps another 15% or so are reasonably accurate.

If so, that makes it 85% likely such accusations are reasonably correct.

Heck, add another 5 percentage points and call it 90%.

The problem is 10% of the accused are innocent.

If there is a reliable witness, the odds have to increase. If not, they have to decrease.

In the case of Kavanugh, there is no reason to believe any of the accusers. Evidence suggests there is every reason to believe the accusations are either false memories or purposeful lies.

This is not a court of law where one is obligated to specified standards. Yet, that does nor morally justify presumption of guilt.

Benefit of the Doubt

  • Let's give Ford the benefit of the doubt because that is what the evidence suggests.
  • Let's also give Kavanaugh the benefit of the doubt because that is also what the evidence suggests.

What do you have?

False memories by Ford. That's what.

Admit Now, Before It's Too Late

Meanwhile, people peruse yearbooks and take things totally out of context.

Admit now or be damned forever.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (23)
No. 1-16

Great sideburns!


more importantly, why is the "u" in summit apparently lowercase when the rest are uppercase?


Great post Mish and those were some pretty sweet "burns" on young Mike. And you were apparently born to gamble with both your and other people's money.

My recurring nightmare is that I'm near the end of a semester in college and realize I totally forgot to attend one of the classes I registered for. I spend my nightmare wandering the campus looking for this class so I can beg the prof to not fail me. I can never find the class.

Finally, the Kavanaugh thing is ridiculous. Absolutely no evidence provided by anyone. However, you need what 9 Democrats to support Kananaugh? So they have to go through the motions. If I were the Rep Senators, I would grill these women for any actual evidence, berate them publicly for not providing any, then humiliate them by cutting off any further discussion.


Are you a money manager? Sorry couldn't resist the joke.

I assumeKavanaugh is getting confirmed. McConnel would not schedule a vote if he didn't think he had the necessary Senators lined up.


In Vietnam we always played High-Low. 7/27.


Complete garbage.

Mike Mish Shedlock
Mike Mish Shedlock


That is a senior image but I had sideburns as a freshman. The seniors were jealous.


I would absolutely love to take the Euchre quiz!!! And I hope that you'd eventually provide answers and reasoning. I consider myself an excellent Euchre player, but I'm also certain I could learn a lot from other experts. Please write this Euchre article Mish.


If you are not embarrassed by this post Mish, then you should be. I feel embarrassed for you.

As to memory, I can clearly and confidently remember specific events in my life as far back as 2nd grade You have no idea how good Ford's memory is either and so your related comments are not germane.


I was in the courtroom in 1956 when Charlie Drake's widow wrongly identified an innocent man as the murderer of her husband. Be careful what you believe; it may, or may not, have happened.


Just go to Gambler's Anon or see a therapist...thats what all politician's do to get out of their past


I watched her "testimony" for a while and she wasn't convincing. It is amazing how much time is wasted on BS. If I were her husband, I'd make my own conclusions...


Drinking in high school seems to be widespread.


What you have to understand this is very, very, very high stakes politics for the Dems to do everything humanly possible to keep the court from tipping conservative. I'm not saying this is the case....but it is definitely squarely in the realm of possibility that there could have been a lot of "recruiting", "coaching", and underhanded stuff to cook up this highly strategic 11th hour ambush. We know that Ford is Dem. We know she marched in a anti Trump march. She very likely is a big time Trump hater. It probably was not difficult to get her to "embellish" a bit. We also know that the gang rape accuser that came forward a few days ago was also represented by Ford's lawyer Katz 10 yrs ago in another harassment case against New York Life. Hmmmm.


One thing we now know with absolute certainty is that Chrissie lied about not being able to get into an airplane because she was so traumatized about what she alleges happened to her years ago. It turns out the woman flies frequently without problems, including very long distance trans-Pacific flights.

This is not something that happened years ago. She lied last week. She has destroyed her own credibility about long-ago groping by lying so obviously right now. Case closed.


This woman seems credible...

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