Near Full Inversion: 10-Year Note Inverts With 1-Month T-Bill

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The yield curve nears full inversion. Every duration higher than 1-month other than the 30-year long bond is inverted.

Those waiting for a full inversion before worrying about recession can start worrying today.

Yield Curve Spreads

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There are too many inversions for me to draw all the arrows. Suffice it to say the 10-year note has now inverted with the 1-month T-Bill.

And from the 5-Year Note through the 1-month T-bill, every duration level is inverted with every duration level beneath it.

We have near-full inversion except for the 30-year long bond.

Recession Time!

Comments (14)
No. 1-7
Ted R
Ted R

RECESSION. One is long overdue. Hopefully it will curb this addiction to debt and make everyone more responsible with regards to borrowing money, including government at all levels.

Schaap60
Schaap60

Doesn't the 3 month with a lower rate than the one month suggests at least some chance of a Fed cut in the next three months? If it does, I wonder what that chance is.

THX1138
THX1138

Who's worried? I'm in 10 yr treasuries. :)

Realist
Realist

Hi Mish. I agree that if the yield curve inversions remain in place over the next month, that would increase the chance of a recession beginning sometime in the next 12-24 months. You make it sound like the US is already in recession.

AWC
AWC

Liquidity Trap on deck? All eyes on Jay. He's da man.