New Home Sales Highest in 12 Years

Mish

Sales jumped to the highest level since October 2007.

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales of new single‐family houses in October 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 733,000.

Because of a huge upward revision, sales fell 0.7 percent below the revised September rate of 738,000, but is 31.6 percent above the October 2018 estimate of 557,000.

Sales Price

The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2019 was $316,700. The average sales price was $383,300.

For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 322,000. This represents a supply of 5.3 months at the current sales rate.

Home Sales Regain Trendline

Homes sales are much better than expected but the year-over-year 36.6% rise is also based on the easiest comparison in 12 years.

Things are back on the trendline from 2011.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (12)
No. 1-9
dbannist
dbannist

So it basically took 10 years to clear out excess inventory.

Got it.

Wonder how long it will take the equities and bond market to clear out and reset to normal once things start sliding?

I'm betting much longer.

I'm always reminded of the wise statement "An irrational market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

numike
numike

William Shatner on mortgages

mkestrel
mkestrel

That’s one terrible recovery if you look at sales in 2006 on the second chart.

WildBull
WildBull

What is the replacement rate on the housing stock?

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

So, the end is not near....yet ?

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Sales helped by tanking interest rates in August (big upward revision to September gives credence) spilling into sales for Sept / Oct.

November sales will be where rubber meets the road.

Put me down for an (unexpected) big miss for November (and December) sales.

Scooot
Scooot

Interestingly, according to a historical gold price table it was $327 in 1985. https://onlygold.com/gold-prices/historical-gold-prices/ About 260oz would have bought the $85k house. Today 260oz at $1460 is $380k so would buy the average house today. Not sure what it proves. 😀

shamrock
shamrock

Starting to look like no recession for Christmas this year.

Realist
Realist

Slow and steady wins again. The economy should continue to grow slowly going forward, just like it has for the last 10 years. Real estate is simply another example of this trend. Rather than a crash or recession, expect slow growth (roughly 1-2%) for several more years. Unfortunately, long term growth will slow toward zero.


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