New Phase of Impeachment: Greatest Witch Hunt in American History

-edited

A new phase of the impeachment process started today with a House vote of 232-196 to proceed further.

New Phase in Trump Impeachment Inquiry

The Financial Times reports House Votes to Open New Phase in Trump Impeachment Inquiry

Greatest Witch Hunt

House Passes Impeachment Inquiry Resolution

The Wall Street Journal reports House Passes Impeachment Inquiry Resolution

The resolution passed in a vote of 232-196, with all Democrats except two supporting the measure, and all Republicans opposed. The one independent in the House, Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, also voted in support of the resolution.

The resolution approved Thursday morning sets out a road map for the probe and will make the investigation more public, though there is no time frame given for when that will happen. The resolution authorizes the House Intelligence Committee to release transcripts from past interviews and gives more power to Republicans, including the right to call witnesses—though those requests are subject to approval by Democrats.

“The House is a separate and coequal branch of government,” said Democratic Chair Hakeem Jeffries (D., N.Y.). “We have a constitutional responsibility to serve as a check and balance on an out-of-control executive branch.”

Democrat Mistake

This looks like a serious mistake by the Democrats.

To understand why, just look at the math and the campaign calendar.

The Math

The House needs 50% to impeach.

The current vote to proceed is just 54%. Assuming there is a final House impeachment vote that exceeds 50%, there will be a trial in the Senate.

The current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats.

Waste of Time

The Senate requires a 2/3 majority, or 67 votes. It will not even get a simple majority, A Senate trial, even if it get to that stage, is going nowhere. Republicans will not convict Trump. Heck, there will likely be some Democrat Senators who feel more than a bit uneasy about things.

Calendar Check

A quick check of my calendar says today is October 31.

A trial could run through January or perhaps even into February if it gets off the ground.

Campaign Trail

  • The Iowa caucus is Feb. 3
  • The New Hampshire’s primary is Feb. 11
  • The Nevada caucus is Feb. 22
  • The South Carolina primary is Feb. 29

Instead of campaigning for the 2020 elections, Democrats will be howling at the moon with Trump mocking them every step of the way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (105)
No. 1-34
WildBull
WildBull

Just as with the Tory Brexit Remainers, there will be a few NWO Republicans to vote with the Dems.

Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab

Is it just me thinking that with impeachment proceedings underway, if/when the economic SHTF, our fearless leaders will be utterly incapable of working together, making the mess that much worse?

FlyoverStan
FlyoverStan

They are going to give Trump, a man who created his own reality TV show and made it a hit, a yuge platform at peak primary time. He will suck all the oxygen out of the primaries, knock off Biden, and hand-pick his opponent. I almost feel sorry for them. Nah, they deserve it.

SMF
SMF

One year before the elections? That's more than insane.

AWC
AWC

Looks like the Fourth Estate is going to be shifting into overdrive to keep this snowball rolling. Stock up on popcorn, folks.

Sechel
Sechel

Public support for the Nixon impeachment was low until the tapes came out. Since the inquiry began many new facts have come out. For starters contrary to Trump's assertion this wasn't just a call but a concerted and planned effort across many months. Huge abuse of the public trust to extort and bribe an ally to investigate a political rival. Even if the removal fails the process is important and Trump put on notice. Seems Trump learned the exact wrong lesson when the Mueller probe died and ended

wootendw
wootendw

"The current Senate makeup is 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and 2 Independents that caucus with the Democrats."

The ouster of Ukraine's elected president using paid demonstrators and snipers (yes, the Maidan snipers were working for US) has the black hands of both parties all over it. Even if there is a slight majority of Republicans in the Senate, many Republicans (not necessarily in the Senate) have something to hide regarding Ukraine and 'our' neonazi beneficiaries there. Very few Senators will want to risk being labeled as Russian 'assets'.

This means that Trump will have to continue the hostile relationship with Russia and not do any good things that could be seen as benefiting Putin, true or not.

Fortunately, it may not matter as the rest of the world sees how worthless (or worse) an alliance with US is. The Nordstream 2 pipeline has been approved and the Germany will no longer be 'our' vassal state, as it has been since WWII.

abend237-04
abend237-04

One hurdle down. Only two remain: 1. Convince 130 million voters that Joe Biden's doper son was really worth $1,000,000 per year to a Ukrainian energy firm, absent Joe's strong-arming as Vice President of the United States of America, and 2. Find 20 Republican United States Senators with an overwhelming political death wish.

Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

Voting for impeachment sets up an interesting dynamic where the debt ceiling will be reached very quickly. Trump could very well shut down portions of the government, and some of those functions could impact impeachment hearings.

LB412
LB412

Even my pre-teen daughter said "why didn't they just wait until the elections to work this out." She attends a very liberal school too.

ksdude69
ksdude69

Rot in hell Pelosi. No wonder you're an alcoholic. Probably doesn't have any mirrors in her house.

Mish
Mish

Editor

NuMike I have no idea WTF that popcorn was all about - Don't post ads again please

RonJ
RonJ

I am waiting for the result of the AG's investigation into the origins of the Trump investigation. Durham apparently found a trove of material, more than he was expecting. It is now a criminal investigation and the scope has expanded beyond the original parameters.

The one thing that the 2016 election is exposing is just how corrupt our government is.

Webej
Webej

It's an exercise in damage control. Pelosi never wanted to start this impeachment show; she only did it to keep her power and keep the Dem party together. They already sacrificed Biden (I already knew about Hunter/Burisma years ago, but now everybody does), because they don't believe he can do anything for the party or the country. Pelosi will be satisfied if the Senate actually deigns to accomodate a trial.

But even then the damage for Dems could be uncontrollable when everything is aired. That said, the Republicans may still vote Trump down because he definitely is "not one of us". If they do, the USA might as well a get a literal marionette to perform the will of the lobbyists and agencies running the government.

Matt3
Matt3

This has been the establishment plan from the beginning. If you watched the inauguration speech, you could see it coming. Trump went after BOTH parties as this was "not the normal transfer of power from one party to another but rather the transfer of power from Washington back to the people". Those were fighting words and a real threat to DC . The entire area lives off the skim ($4 trillion) and endless wars!

Herkie
Herkie

Fraudzilla is a criminal and so this is the right thing to do. If the evidence was weak or spurious or open to interpretation I would agree with you Mish, but it is not, trump is caught dead to right breaking serious laws, not the least of which aside from blackmailing foreign leaders into helping to interfere with our elections is the obstruction of justice, THAT is what got Nixon pushed out and Trump deserves no better.

I know the brainwashed Trumpster base think he is the second coming and their minds can't be changed, because they literally CANNOT be changed, they are like cement and just as smart as cement. But, the wider GOP wants him out, they know and are predicting a total wipeout for the republicans, with dem gains in the house, Dem control of the senate, and a dem president, Fat Ass has damaged their brand so badly they are lining up around the block to testify in front of impeachment committees. And the senate is NOT as solid as you think it is, privately GOP senators are saying they would vote to remove if it were a secret ballot. Even Moscow Mitch is waffling and making ominous noises about the trial that WILL happen, he could make the jury verdict a secret ballot if he wants to. The constitution does not dictate the rules of a trial in the senate, the rule as they were can be changed with a 50% plus 1 vote.

Unemployment just ticked up again today it was announced, and key swing states WI, MI, PA, all see unemployment rising, several reports in a row now. Who cares what happens in AL, or KY, or MS? We already know how they will vote, they would vote for Hitler if he was the GOP nominee and we all know it. By super Tuesday people will be afraid for their jobs. That is what will make the difference, so go ahead and impeach, it is the correct thing to do no matter political blowback. If the democrats stand there with their dicks in their hands while the worst thing to happen to this country since polio conspires to destroy us then they will deserve NOT to hold office anyway!

shamrock
shamrock

The facts of the case aren't really in dispute. If you think that asking and pressuring a foreign government to help you politically is ok, then don't impeach. If you think it is a crime and abuse of power, then impeach.

thimk
thimk

the dems are emboldened in their latest recapture of the house via the spurious Mueller report . 50 incumbent repubs dropped out of that race. Anyone who leaks private executive messages really should be tried for treason . Rush L reported that the leaker was a obama holdover maybe a CIA operative . trump keeps stepping in it.

Schaap60
Schaap60

With the election only a year away, why impeach now instead of focusing on beating Trump at the ballot box? I'm concerned the Democrats don't believe any of their candidates can beat Trump straight up. That's a scary thought.

Mish
Mish

Editor

"Republicans in the Senate have shifted their position too as the mood changes. They are now committed to hold a trial and not a short one."

Good observation

Why not disrupt the Democrat primaries?

SpeedyGeezer
SpeedyGeezer

It does not appear that there are many R defectors yet. If there is not more damaging evidence, this impeachment process and the subsequent trial will not remove Trump. Rather it will divide our country even further. This may help the far left D's and the far right R's, but not the vast middle, who would like to see some reasonable progress on infrastructure, immigration, gun control, campaign and lobbying reform, etc. Gridlock, here we come!!

HenryV
HenryV

God that woman REALLY gives me the creeps. Congress’ very own Halloween skeleton in the cupboard, with lipstick on. Glad she’s over on your side of the pond and not ours!

Facts only
Facts only

In a more perfect Union, wrong would be wrong no matter the party. If a Democrat president had done what Trump did, the Republicans would not be complacent at all and would be raising hell. I've come to find that the Republicans are just hippocrates....not saying that the Democrats are perfect. They say they care about free markets, deficits, etc. It's all BS.

Country Bob
Country Bob

Biden should be very worried, and his son too.

Other than the bribes Biden's son took, this is all really stupid, low quality kabuki theater that amounts to another waste of taxpayer money.

There is no crime to prosecute. Voters have known since (at least) 2000 that Trump has a giant ego and can be a bit of an ass at times -- but we voted for him anyway because we are sick of Washington DC corruption. A witch hunt is only going to solidify animosity toward Washington establishment.

Politicizing impeachment into partisan stupidity is going to cause blowback whenever a democrat next gets into office. Impeachment is supposed to be about an actual crime, not personal conflicts -- every president has detractors.

Anyway, this will backfire on the dems. Biden should be terrified.

And voters should be pissed that yet another $50 million of tax dollars (on top of the Mueller farce) is going to be wasted. Imagine what a $100 million could do if it was directed at solving a real problem

Ensign_Nemo
Ensign_Nemo

Do they realize that if this goes to the Senate, the Republicans are in charge?

The crux of the entire matter is whether or not the President was trying to investigate an actual crime, or if he was trying to get dirt on a political opponent.

How will the Republicans proceed?

They will subpoena Joe Biden and Hunter Biden and grill them like a steak to see if criminal behavior has occurred. If there is prima facie evidence that Hunter and Joe are crooks, then it is going to be very hard to get Republicans to impeach a Chief Executive who is precisely following his job description:

"... he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed, ..."

Trump is actually doing his job when he tries to start an investigation of corruption.

Hunter Biden was granted a waiver to get into the US Navy because of an issue with drug abuse, and he was then kicked out of the Navy after he failed a drug test. Months later, he gets a gig with the Ukrainians.

Will they ask Hunter if he used the money he got from the Ukrainians to buy cocaine? It's a legitimate question, in the context of his behavior, and the failed drug test, and his reputation as a coke-addled womanizing "fortunate son".

This will go over like a lead balloon among the blue collar workers of the US, many of whom don't earn $50K in a year, much less get that much per month for attending a board meeting. Nobody likes a rich kid who snorts coke and gets cushy jobs only because his dad is a big shot.

The Dems don't seem to realize that a vote for impeachment, and a Senate trial, is going to damage their frontrunner more than they will damage Trump.

And even if they do somehow impeach, convict, and remove Trump, then they have created a precedent for removing a future President Biden also, as he BRAGGED about holding up a billion dollar loan unless they fired the prosecutor investigating his son's company within six hours.

AshH
AshH

Sorry, I think a lot of these comments are nutso. It's already OK for the president to basically lie in a court of law (thanks, Clinton), and now we're saying it's OK for a president to obstruct an investigation (Mueller), and pressure foreign governments to help them out politically (Ukraine)? This isn't just about Trump. It's about what is acceptable behaviour from our leaders, current and future, Republican and Democrat. The stonewalling, the excuse making, the belittling, and calling it "just a witch-hunt", makes me really sad for the future of this nation. The behavior of this President has been very troubling, and should be investigated, regardless of whether he has an R or a D next to his name.

Just my 2¢. Let the flaming responses begin...

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

Mish, you left out the fact that confirmation of impeachment by the Senate requires a 2/3 majority, or 67 votes. It will not even get a simple majority, not even with RINO Trump hating swamp creatures there. If I thought impeachment had a chance I would sell all my stocks immediately.

stillCJ
stillCJ

Editor

The democrats had to do this now as a preemptive measure against the criminal indictments that are coming soon for many democrat operatives. Although it will be the Rule of Law actually working for a change, they will say it is just Trump's revenge. Pathological liar Little Adam Schitt is the ringleader and he is the most despicable American politician of all time.

awc13
awc13

it is going to be a fun year in 2020 watching the wheels of justice slowly grind the deep state creatures to pulp

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

occasionally watching CNN, just for the hell of it ..... I am not a Trump fan (and I know that the C stands for Clinton) but the anti Trump bias is just SICKENING with lies dripping off my screen....OUTRAGEOUS that a allegedly prestigious network is so deeply and subjectively involved in politics !

KidHorn
KidHorn

"The resolution authorizes the House Intelligence Committee to release transcripts from past interviews and gives more power to Republicans, including the right to call witnesses—though those requests are subject to approval by Democrats."

So basically the republicans don't really have the right to call witnesses.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

Republicans will have a problem because voters will have to ask the question if they want to vote for someone who has been impeached (not convicted). I believe Democratic strategy is to get more Republicans to stay home on election day.

We really need 4 year term limits on all federally elected offices. Term limits for the Senate and House are something the founding fathers did not think of.

nextstopmars
nextstopmars

Did you ever work for a political party party ? I have . I put my time , the time of my life , and money into getting my parties political candidates elected . The main reason for doing so , has to be self interest although , I started with the idea that one party would be abusive to me personally if they got elected . This was proven to be correct in certain instances . So, e.g. , in New York about 30 years ago there was a man running for High Office whose was the Republican choice for this position . The ground workers of the Rep. Party consisted in my district many of people with jobs and pensions . The potential candidate policy position paper which most of their representatives never read indicated that this candidate was for repeal of all pension contributions by the State of NY to pensions . The ground worker in my district , who was a teacher , within the State was told by me of the position paper statement . She was not even aware of the fact that there is always a position paper or statement of a candidate unless it is a fake candidate . Anyway after multiple denials by her that her own party was working against her best interest which in this case was her life after retirement , she agreed to look into it. So, this in ans to the outrage of this writer on what the writer is ascribing as moral values . The point is all of these politicians will betray all of the values of their base , and each politicians vote either betrays their base or harms someone else , so that it is not only that the system is broken , but all moral values are broken , and every action by a politician has to be first to get them selves elected and to choose a moral base , and then keep this base , if it gets him or her elected. There is no such thing in reality as President of All of the People . This statement is a Oxymoron as what was taught in my civics course in High School is that each President is the Head of his or her Political Party which takes priority over each President being at the head of a Nation . I personally find that Nixon s breaking into Democrats Headquarter to be much more offensive , than a politician trying to get dirt on his or her opponent by making a quid pro quo promise before he is elected . In fact , the whole world of politics is about quid pro quo promises. Is this moral ? This does not matter because it exists and will continue to exist because now this is the system itself . You have to be elected first to be able to drain the swamp . Revolution was the means to change the system and this was maybe to your surprise advocate by Declaration of Ind. If peace is the goal , you have to have the system that produces peace .