No Deal Brexit Odds Rise: UK Thoroughly Rebuked at EU Conference in Salzburg

UK Prime Minister Theresa May presented her "Chequers" Brexit Plan at an EU Summit. She was thoroughly rebuked.

President Tusk’s verdict after meeting with the assembled leaders of the EU27 at Salzburg was brutal. Perhaps it wasn’t anything that EU figures hadn’t already said before. But it left little room for doubt. The economic aspects of the Prime Minister’s Chequers plan, he said, “will not work”. This was a major setback. Number 10’s entire Brexit strategy is now teetering on the edge.

What now? Theresa May needs to face the assembled membership of her party in less than a fortnight.

She faces a difficult audience, bruised by Downing Street’s botched handling of Chequers. Her authority will be further challenged by former Cabinet ministers openly campaigning against her.

Salzburg puts us well and truly in the brinksmanship phase of Brexit where the EU seems willing to play ‘chicken’ with the economic and geo-strategic interests of the continent. European leaders have thrown the Prime Minister’s hard-won and painful compromise proposal back in her face, but offer no solutions of their own.

At this point the biggest risk of a no-deal Brexit comes from the EU’s stubborn inability to compromise. And the ultimate irony is that a failure to reach agreement on a backstop designed to prevent a hardening of the Irish border, is now the most likely cause of a no-deal exit and a possible hardening of that same border.

EU Leaders Run Out of Patience with May

From Eurointelligence ...

If there is one EU partner the UK can normally rely on for solidarity or at least for sympathy, it’s the Netherlands. Not this time. The most scathing words about lying Brexiteers at yesterday’s EU summit in Salzburg may have been Emmanuel Macron's, but for a French leader to be rude about the British has been normal diplomatic practice for centuries. By far the most stunning dismissal of British Brexit negotiating tactics came from Mark Rutte: "We all want the best for both sides, but it’s difficult with all the red lines that are part of the British debate."

Red Lines Everywhere

Curiously, the EU has far more red lines than the UK. I believe a no-deal setup that ends in the hands of the WTO would be far more damaging to the EU than the UK.

Others say the opposite. But the UK being a single nation would immediately be relieved of tons of EU BS on tax policy, fishing rights, etc. And the UK would no longer have to contribute a dime to the EU slush fund pot.

No-Deal Brexit has Come a Step Closer

Eurointelligence has stated many times that its base assumption is that there would be a deal. Just two days ago, it thought that Chequers would fly. Things changed today.

The EU has killed off the Chequers plan for good. May needed Chequers to ensure that the Irish backstop in the withdrawal treaty would never be triggered. Her plan‘s formal rejection means that the Brexit choices have become starker. In our view no-deal may now be the single most likely outcome, alongside with what some UK commentators are calling the blind Brexit - one with an Irish backstop in the withdrawal agreement and a fudged political declaration.

The DUP [Northern Ireland MEPs backing May] has no reason to support a deal that could leave Northern Ireland permanently decoupled from the mainland. The opposition parties will also reject it - for different reasons. Could the Tory party unite behind this? It is possible, but such an outcome cannot be taken for granted.

The EU‘s formal rejection of Chequers is a serious setback for a prime minister who just seemed to have found some political traction back home. The speculation about her future will now intensify. The Times writes this morning that David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, will present his own plan for a free-trade deal during this month‘s Tory party conference. If this has more traction with the grass roots than whatever May will suggest, Davis could emerge as the next Tory leader. But would Davis' plan include an Irish backstop? We don‘t know. Ireland is one of the issues that divides the eurosceptics. Some could not care less about Northern Ireland and are willing to accept an intra-UK customs border. But we find it hard to believe that this could command a majority position in the UK parliament as a whole.

The complications of UK politics - not well understood on the continent - and the technical complications of Brexit, are what drives us to the conclusion that the risk of a no-deal Brexit has risen in Salzburg.

What will May do? For starters, the British government will now visibly increase preparations for a no-deal Brexit. May herself will stick to Chequers, as one of her cabinet ministers indicated this morning. She will accept a few technical compromises here and there, and let the negotiations drag out to the very end. Unless the conservatives replace her this autumn, she will confront the EU with a choice of Chequers versus no-deal. The UK sides believes, rightly in our view, that the EU is underestimating the probability of a no-deal Brexit.

Stroke of Good Fortune

This bit of political gamesmanship is a stroke of good fortune for the UK.

Short-term there will be a bit of pain. Long-term, getting the hell out of a miserable marriage to 27 Nannycrats who all have to agree with everything (or nothing gets done) has to be a good thing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments
No. 1-8
Six000mileyear
Six000mileyear

The EU is an exit sandwich. First by the UK. Second by an eastern European country like Poland or Hungary. Poland has reiterated its desire to pay the US $2B to establish a military base in Poland as defense against Russia. It seems odd that Poland would not ask the EU for help, unless Poland fears Germany or is planning to Polxit.

ML1
ML1

A long comment was just eaten by the Maven comment system... Please fix this...

ML1
ML1

EU leaders are tone deaf and INCOMPETENT. They have completely misjudged the Brexit situation just like they completely misjudged the rush of migrants in 2015.

This humiliation of UK and Brits just increased the odds of NO deal Brexit where trade would be on WTO tariffs and which would hurt German economy and French Economy hugely since they export much more to UK than they import from UK.

UK should have a NO deal Brexit and refuse to pay the about 50 billion Euros EU claims they need to pay and instead UK needs to tell German taxpayers and French taxpayers to pay that 50 billion and Merkel and Macron will become even more unpopular than they already are. UK can pay ALL WTO tariffs of UK businesses that export to EU and still have billions in profits from WTO tariffs on products imported to UK.

UK can smooth the customs by giving factories and large companies their own custom officials and having local custom officials for middle-sized companies that go through all customs issues for middle-sized companies in certain city.

Small companies can quickly do their customs at the border since no ques with the above optimized customs plan. There can be open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland with large companies and factories also doing customs through their dedicated customs officials and middle-sized companies doing customs with the customs officials in their city. 500 UK Pounds worth of goods can be brought customs free to avoid any bother for normal people and some spot checks for small companies crossing the border to make sure they go to the customs station to declare the products. There will be some customs evasion but so what it will be small potatoes and will also work the other way around with Northern Ireland taking products to Ireland customs free so in the end NO reason to agree EU's insane dictats to keep the border free and open because it can be kept open and free even in a NO deal scenario.

Macron saying that "liars" caused Brits to vote for Brexit is the most IDIOTIC statement ever because France and Hollande to whom Macron worked for as a minister were part of the reason Brexit happened because France ALLOWED the Jungle full of illegal immigrants in Calais trying to get to UK and attacking lorries and France ALLOWED Afghans, Iraqis, Nigerians, Eritreans etc. to try to cross from Calais to UK to get the premium welfare UK provides. Those migrants were ILLEGALLY in France and according to EU rules France should have arrested them and either sent them back home or made them apply for asylum in France, instead France pushed them to UK through Calais by allowing them to go there and wait there until they got across.

The migrants themselves did NOT want to ask for asylum in France because France REJECTS most asylum claims and has a strict process while UK has a soft touch asylum process and even FAILED asylum seekers can stay in UK while France sends them back home if they apply and are rejected. UK also has much more generous welfare than France.

France's actions and the situation at Calais which has been an ongoing nightmare for about 10 years now is one of the major reasons Brexit was voted for by the Brits.

Another reason Brits voted for Brexit was Merkel's 2015 insane and incompetent welcome of millions of migrants to Germany and Europe and the massive crime wave that followed. After getting a residence permit from Germany or some other EU country those millions are entitled to move to UK under current EU freedom of movement rules.

Third reason was Romanian and Bulgarian gypsies moving in masses to UK to get the generous welfare. Romanian gypsies selling homeless magazine Big Issue in UK are considered to be working in UK and get access to UK welfare...

Fourth reason was massive low wage immigration to UK from Poland and many other eastern European countries and this migration had the effect of lowering UK wages and keeping wages low in UK so the working man was robbed through EU policies to the benefit of the owning class and businesses while the millions of eastern Europeans swamped UK healthcare, UK daycares, UK schools etc. to the point of overcrowding while prices of real estate shot through the roof even for working class areas due to the additional demand.

fla56
fla56

@mish just wanted to thank you for you previous articles on the ECB balance sheets

i have linked to them many many times to demonstrate to hardcore Remainers that their claimed EU 'recovery' is of course a mirage

in fact it's one of the things that turned me from Remain to Leave

sadly however there is a predominance of the hard Left in Remain so presenting them with facts like '1 trillion Euros of rotten corporate debt' goes nowhere, such people usually only deal in emotion and reject facts

i suspect sadly we are indeed heading for hard Brexit but longer term i have no doubt the UK will succeed as we will choose robots over an immigrant workforce

abend237-04
abend237-04

Some designs just don't work well. There's a reason 28 cylinder engines with arbitrary misfire and bearing seizure don't exist. The EU is such a political engine.

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