New York Fed President William Dudley will retire Monday. Current San Francisco Fed chief John Williams will take over.
“The federal funds rate will probably have to climb a little bit above neutral, because the unemployment rate is already -- from most people’s vantage points -- below a sustainable level of unemployment consistent with stable inflation,” Dudley told reporters Friday. “So, I think the move will be eventually to a slightly tight monetary policy.”
“I’m sort of expecting that the peak in the federal funds rate in this cycle will be lower than in past cycles, but I have quite a bit of uncertainty about that,” Dudley said during a conference call.
The unemployment rate is too low now, so we need to hike.
“The previous behavior of using housing debt to finance other kinds of consumption seems to have completely disappeared,” and people are leaving the wealth generated by rising home prices “locked up” in their homes.
“A return to a reasonable pattern of home equity extraction would be a positive development for retailers, and would provide a boost to economic growth.”
Dudley is a real gem. He will be missed for the comedy he provides.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock