Out of the Blue, Brexit Deal Still Possible

-edited

A Brexit deal is back in play following a between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar .

The British Pound jumped the most in 11 months on the news Varadkar Says Brexit Deal is Possible.

Open Minds

Deputy prime minister of Ireland Simon Coveney on the Brexit deadline

Having watched EU politics for years, I am not at all surprised by news Varadkar says new agreement 'possible' by end of October after talks with Johnson.

"For the first time in months, there is a more optimistic tone in tomorrow’s newspapers on the prospect of a deal being reached with the EU."

This is very typical of EU politics as I have commented many times.

Despite the hardening language of just a day ago, after a meeting between Johnson and Varadkar, a deal is suddenly back in play.

What Happened?

Did Johnson give in on something? Yes, he had to. Giving the DUP a veto was never going to fly.

Anything more is difficult to say.

Did Ireland give in on something. That's not certain, but it's possible, if not likely.

What If?

If Johnson does produce a deal, it may come with a do or die proviso.

If so, there will be no further extensions.

Parliament will have to accept the deal or face a No Deal result on October 31.

Perhaps there is a short extension into November or even January 31, 2020 but only to tie up loose ends.

I suspect the UK parliament would agree to the deal on those conditions. If not, No Deal on October 31.

There is a small chance that the European Parliament rejects the deal after approved by the UK. The result would be the same: No Deal.

Odds?

I don't know.

What did Johnson give away? The EU?

If there is a deal, we will find out shortly.

But here we are, discussing a deal that most thought "impossible".

I never thought that, noting many last second EU deals, but it sure looked grim just a day ago.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (20)
No. 1-8
Mish
Mish

Editor

I don't write for foreigners

I write about what I think is important globally, but sometimes, what I find interesting.

If I was after clicks I would write about Trump every day. I happen to think that Brexit is important and collectively, the EU is nearly as big as the US.

I am pleased to have a global readership.

The title of this blog used to be Global Economic Analysis Not US economic analysis

People are free to find other sites more to their liking.

krage
krage

Let me just describe the whole situation with Brexit extention in plain terms.

  • There are 2 teams of lawyers - UK Gov and EU/Remain.
  • Both teams are aware of the fact - ONLY UK GOV DECIDES IF BREXIT IS EXTENDED OR NOT, NO MATTER WHAT PARLAMENT OR COURT DOES. THE DEFAULT IS TO LEAVE ON OCT 31.
  • Both teams keep this private and fight via other means.
  • The reason is for only UK GOV to decide to extend is because a) it is in EU law, b) as it impacts royal prerogative, it requires Queens Consent and, therefore, it also requires UK Gov consent to it. That means Brexit cannot be extended if UK Gov is not agreed to it.
  • Note, that I say Uk Gov, not Prime Minister, which is importnant...
  • Now, both legal teams know about it. Benn's Bill is an attempt of one team to somehow go around it which, well, not really possible... but I guess they rely on some precedural things which actually might have played against them....
  • Benn's Bill requires Prime Minister to do what it asks to do. But does it mean it achieves what it wants ? Actually, no. Just because doing what Benn's Bill asks has nothing to do with what UK Gov is needed to do to have the proper extention requested and apporved. In other words, that letter is not really request of UK Gov, but rather a person, Prime Minister acting in non-government capacity!
  • Prime Minister can even accept the extention request from EU, absolutly! But it would not mean that UK Gov accepted the request as Queen Consent was not granted to make the decision on something what is royal prerogative!
  • Now you may ask about Supream Court which will do anything to stop the Brexit? But the problem with it is that, leaving on Oct 31 is DEAFULT position the parlament voted for. That means UK Gov does not really need to do anything for Brexit to happen on Oct 31. That means that no one can take UK Gov to the court to force it to not do something! It just does by default what the parlament voted for!
  • That is why you see so many petty lawsuits against Gov as EU/Remainers legal teams try to force some actions on UK Gov. But they cannot force Uk gov to do what it does not want to do just because this is ultimately queen's decision and she needs UK gov agreement first..
  • That is the reason Boris and the team was always confident that UK is leaving on Oct 31.
  • That is the reason Boris offered election several times to EU/Remainers - take election, change the government and delay! No takers :)
  • That is why EU is desperate about Libor/Liberals not being able to form the government of unity...
  • All decisions are in Boris's hands. If Brexit is extended, that means Boris agreed to extend it! This is what EU is working on now unless they have brains to fold now..
  • Let's see if Boris gives in.... it is his choice, only! But given all the speeches and commitmenets - this will be difficult...

Btw, a curious parlament session will be held on Oct 19. I expect at least 2 votes - elections, referendum. Both rejected and followed by hard Brexit (if no deal.)

Quenda
Quenda

I've long since ceased to understand anything that's going on with Brexit so all I can say I hope this isn't a false dawn and its not something that is going to tie the UK too closely to the EU. I'm hoping to see something that allows the UK to sign FTA's and aligns the UK within the anglosphere.

Fulgurite
Fulgurite

Hehehe, give it up Mish!

Although I'm totally sympathetic with the wish for the UK to leave the EUSSR, I'm afraid that Brexit ain't gonna happen.

There are simply too many vested interests to maintain the status quo, and BoJo is (just like Trump) someone who talks a lot, but lacks a structural plan to achieve his aims.

njbr
njbr

This quite likely is just a continuation of the blame-shifting game. No-one wants to be seen as standing around, smoking cigarettes while the patient dies on the table. There are rumors of Johnson reviving the May Withdrawal Agreement with sub-minor changes, throw it on the table again, if it doesn't pass, the potato is passed from his hands.

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

Cunning, cunning, cunning. Johnson gets a late "deal" against an EU background of take this one or leave it, no more extensions. Parliament is forced to accept, otherwise it's a no deal Brexit. The Benn bill is completely neutralised.

Either way, we are out at the end of this month without Boris needing to pull any shenanigans.

My bet is that Labour will whip it's MPs to reject, being instinctively and intellectually unable to accept a "tory" deal. But there may be enough Labour brexiteer MPs not due to stand again at the forthcoming election to ease it through, while sticking two fingers up to Corbyn.

Election follows, too late for Labour to get rid of Corbyn, LibDems pick up loads of votes from the distressed losers, thumping Tory majority.

The next Labour leader will be Neil Kinnock, who will have to start on the same path to sorting out the party that his dad did in 1985. You heard it here first.

.

JustASimpleMan
JustASimpleMan

For some reason I can't connect the Kinnock reference to read STEPHEN instead of Neil??

Webej
Webej

The Irish border and the Irish were always the nut that couldn't be cracked. No longer letting DUP take the process hostage is a good begin. If the Irish are pressured by the EU to agree to something instead of thinking about 3D chess reunification outcomes, the two hostage takers can be overcome, and some deal that everybody can live with can be reached.

All the complications of UK politics is a backdrop, and will not be decisive.