Polarization of Germany in Pictures: Polls Move in Entirely Predictable Pattern

About once a week the Greens cheer victory. Alternately, AfD cheers. The Grand Coalition never has any grounds to cheer.

I have a blast following German polls and pronouncements, especially from the Greens.

First, let's take a look at AfD.

AfD Cheers September 21

Greens Cheer September 29

AfD Cheers October 1

I have been watching this pattern for many weeks and no one seems to have caught on. This next image will explain.

AfD Spread Over Greens - Last 6 INSA Polls

  • 3.5
  • 3.0
  • 4.5
  • 3.5
  • 1.0
  • 2.5

Greens Spread Over AfD - Last 6 Forza Polls

  • 2.5
  • 1.5
  • 3.0
  • 1.5
  • 2.5
  • 1.5

​Now that the INSA poll is out of the way, it's pretty clear the Greens turn to cheer will soon happen again.

Demise of the Grand Coalition

Meanwhile note that support for the Union (CDU/CSU) "Grand Coalition" is slowly sinking into the sunset.

Support is at a new record low in the last two polls

The lead image shows the overall pattern.

Coalition Outlook

If there was an election today, the Grand Coalition would not have a chance according to any recent poll.

Even the Jamaica coalition, named after colors in the Jamaica flag (black, yellow, green), might not gather, or barely gather, the required 50%.

INSA has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26 + 10 + 14.5 = 50.5.

Civey has the Union + FDP + Greens total as 26.7 + 8.6 + 15.7 = 51.0.

How long could such a three-way coalition last, assuming it got off the ground in the first place?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (7)
No. 1-2

Germany needs to get the heck out of the EU yesterday.

The entire population just isn't going to stand for forever being designated patsy of last resort, for every retarded financialization scam played by the rest of the leeches forever; just because a generation of now dead once-were politicians, felt bad about being on the losing side in a war between people now dead.

Germany doesn't need the rest of the clowns they're tied together with in any way whatsoever. There'll be a period of uncertainty past a clean break, and then they'll be back to business as usual. Minus being bled dry for no other purpose than keeping leeches abroad, and deadweight profiteers at home, in unearned splendor.


How many years until poll lines for CDU/CSU and AfD cross like the pol lines for SPD and AfD just crossed?

CDU/CSU are still in deep denial and Seehofer is a wet sock as interior minister and has done almost no tightening in asylum policy or immigration policy.

Germany still allows asylum seekers and failed asylum seekers do whatever they want despite EU directives allowing failed asylum seekers to be put into detention until deportation and EU directives allowing asylum seekers to be kept in CLOSED residences during the whole asylum process.

Germany still grants asylum and subsidiary protection easier than other EU countries.

Germany still gives 50,000 "humanitarian protection" residence permits per year for asylum seekers that do NOT qualify for either asylum or subsidiary protection that it could sent back home instead because EU directives do not demand a category of "humanitarian protection" and most EU countries do NOT have a category of "humanitarian protection".