Pound Surges as Johnson on Brink of a Brexit Deal

-edited

A Brexit deal looks highly likely but it will likely take an extension to get the deal signed, sealed, and delivered.

Brink of a Deal

The Guardian reports Boris Johnson 'on brink of Brexit deal' after border concessions

A draft text of the agreement could now be published on Wednesday if Downing Street gives the final green-light, according to senior EU and British sources. It is understood that the negotiating teams have agreed in principle that there will be a customs border down the Irish Sea. The arrangement was rejected by Theresa May as a deal that no British prime minister could accept.

Johnson will still have to win over parliament – including the Democratic Unionist party (DUP) and the hardline Tory Brexiters, the European Research Group – on the basis that, under the deal, Northern Ireland will still legally be within the UK’s customs territory.

“Northern Ireland would de jure be in the UK’s customs territory but de facto in the European Union’s,” one diplomatic source said of the tentative agreement.

In a phone call with Johnson on Tuesday, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, acknowledged the momentum towards reaching a deal, but raised the possible need for a “technical” Brexit extension beyond 31 October to allow talks to bear fruit.

DUP Not on Board

This is a good political move on the part of DUP. Perhaps the EU will lighten up on some points.

But if push comes to shove, Johnson will dump DUP if he has the votes.

Saturday Meeting

Parliament will meet on Saturday, October 19, if there is a deal.

The Benn Bill requires Johnson to seek an extension or present a deal by that date. The goal is to have a draft by tomorrow.

ERG On Board

ERG is the group of hard-line Brexiteers led by Steve Baker

Blasts Pour In

That is complete nonsense. There is an enormous difference between all of UK being permanently trapped in a customs union and Northern Ireland being trapped. And the latter isn't necessarily true. Stormont (Northern Ireland) will have a say, but both sides must agree.

SNP Blasts the Deal

Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon Blasted the Deal.

We oppose the politics of Johnson and Trump. But let us be clear today that we reject their methods too. Crude populism tramples on the rights of minorities and tears at the very fabric of our democracy.

We won’t take it anymore. We shouldn’t take it anymore. It is time to take charge of our own future. It is time for independence.

​Brexit is a disaster. What makes Brexit so much worse for Scotland is that it is happening against our will.

Wales will have voted to leave. England will have voted to leave. Northern Ireland will be given a say over its future. Scotland will be the only country in the UK to be taken out of the EU against our will and with no say over our future relationship with Europe.

My call is that the referendum [on Scottish Independence] must happen next year.

Scottish Independence Polls

Hard Border Between Britain and Scotland

Sturgeon not only wants to break away from the UK, she also wants to Join the EU.

Effectively, she is campaigning for a hard border between Great Britain and Scotland.

It's nonsensical given what just took place with Ireland. And this time there is no Irish Sea solution.

But heck, I am all in favor of a vote. I believe in self-determination.

I rather doubt Scotland would vote for a hard border, but let em have a referendum, if only to shut Sturgeon up.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (31)
No. 1-7
FloydVanPeter
FloydVanPeter

Scotland had a referendum a few years ago. Isn't it?

Latkes
Latkes

The great irony - they will gain "independence" by switching from their master in London to the master in Brussels... and no matter which master rules over them, the native Scots will be replaced by third worlders with no relationship to the land and it's history within a few decades. Scottish National Party is happy with assisting the Great Replacement.

Mish
Mish

Editor

Yes, first referendum failed

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

The NI-only backstop was the very first EU proposal in this whole charade. It is quite hard do dedicate it to the genius of Johnson. :) If this is agreed, then he conceded on practically everything. And the parliamentary vote depends on Labour.

By the way, if the union with Northern Ireland can be thrown away, why should anyone worry about Scotland?

dansilverman
dansilverman

The dumbest people in UK politics are the Scottish Nationalists.

Deep Purple
Deep Purple

The concessions of Johnson to the EU might be understandable if Corbyn has lost the effective leadership of Labour to Remainers. An EU deal is needed if they are the main opponent. They can go for a referendum extension amendment but that seems to be a long shot.

My main scenario of a Corbyn extension could stand only if leaders are not defeated inside their parties. Difficult to tell if it is true at this point. I suspect that Corbyn still holds power but just barely.

krage
krage

The deal is not coming... This is just a game by EU to press for another extention as if they are getting closer but not enough time... If EU really wanted to reach compromise purely on merits, all this could have been done already... They just want to put Boris into a difficult position when they say only small things unresolved and Boris exits on 31 Oct... All depends now on Boris's decision, he can fold under pressure - rememebr he voted for May's deal third time - or he can stand his ground...