Powell "Not Forecasting a Recession"

-edited

In a speech today in Zurich Switzerland, Jerome Powell stated the Fed is not forecasting a recession.

YouTube Video of Zurich Conference

The Fed has never forecast a recession, even after they have started.

It reminds me of Bernanke's denials on the housing bubble.

No Comment on Trade?

Everything's Fine

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1169983251160731651

Accurate Reader Comment

"Not only has the Fed never forecast a recession they've never forecast a crash or bubble. But that hasn't stopped them from telling us we don't have a bubble or crash on the horizon."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (34)
No. 1-11
Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

It will be slow growth ~1%. But if inflation is running closer to 2% what does it mean ? It may not feel like a recession but the treadmill will make sure most people get nowhere.

Sechel
Sechel

Powell has a tough job. Fed is supposed to maintain full employment but Trump is engaged in reckless trade policies hurting growth. He can't be seen as political and enabling bad policies but he still has to react to slowing growth when and if it happens.

Sechel
Sechel

Not only has the Fed never forecast a recession they've never forecast a crash or bubble. But that hasn't stopped them from telling us we don't have a bubble or crash on the horizon

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

The Federal Reserve's track record speaks for itself

Ben Bernanke:

"Overall economic growth was quite slow but apparently positive in both the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of this year. Activity during the current quarter is also likely to be relatively weak. We may see somewhat better economic conditions during the second half of 2008, reflecting the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus, reduced drag from residential construction, further progress in the repair of financial and credit markets, and still solid demand from abroad. This baseline forecast is consistent with our recently released projections, which also see growth picking up further in 2009."

From a speech given on ... June 3rd, 2008 ... otherwise known as 7 months deep into last recession.

Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett

Sticking with my "light switch" prediction*

*Economic activity more or less stable ... then falls off the cliff