Rate Cut Odds Soar on Weak Data

A month ago, Fed Fund Futures implied a 72.9% chance of at least one hike. They now imply a 38.9% chance of at least one

Comments (8)
No. 1-3
2banana
2banana

If there are any "deals to made" with Trump and the Fed.

Rate cuts beginning about 9 months before the 2020 election.

Too soon now...

JonSellers
JonSellers

I think that as long as the unemployment rate remains low, the fed will hike. For those who want a job at prevailing wages, most everyone has one. Incremental hires will be the very young, those marginally attached to employment, and those who have been out of work for awhile. These are all low-productivity individuals, which means added costs and lower profits for employers. Continuing along in this environment may lead to real inflation. The one thing the Fed cares about.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

The Fed will continue to unwind its QE balance sheet even if they stop hiking rates. The next test for Powell is if he gives in. My guess is he wont but he will be out voted to keep rates where they are. He will then move on for someone who is in favor of rate cuts at all costs. The economy will explode then implode in this scenario. If we want a currency that has some value Powell is our best hope.