Rate Cuts More Likely Than Hikes in 2019

The market has now totally priced out rate hikes for the December 11, 2019 FOMC meeting.

The rate probability curve for December 11, 2019 now slightly favors rate cuts over hikes according to CME Fedwatch Odds.

There is a 13.4% chance of at least one cut vs. a 4.6% chance of at least one hike as of this snapshot taken today

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Comments (7)
No. 1-7
Realist
Realist

So what are the odds of a recession if the fed cuts.

mkestrel
mkestrel

The market discounted the rate hikes in 2018 as well. They think that the FED will not sacrifice the stock market. I am taking the opposite if that bet. Perhaps the FED is dead set on increasing rates.

lol
lol

Another year (same as it ever was) of massive money printing and central banks buying up everything within sight or hearing,bonds,stocks ,commodities ..literally everything....what's been happening for more than a decade? yes another fresh money printing record will be set in 2019!

Blacklisted
Blacklisted

Why would they cut rates - has the pension crisis been fixed? There's more than enough money flowing in from troubled foreign countries to keep stocks buoyed. That doesn't mean stocks will not pull back some more in Q1 to get more bag holders into bonds.

Boot6761
Boot6761

Who says the Markets are not fixed? They are a true auction style market...albeit with a few algorithms to go along with it? As long as the entire Central Bank System are in cahoots together this will never end...not kicking the can down the road...kicking the solution out altogether...Sooner or later you have to pay the piper and when that day comes it won't be pretty...you can only refinance your debt for so long before you run out of powder...