Federal Reserve officials are considering whether to signal a new wait-and-see approach after a likely interest-rate increase at their meeting in December, which could slow down the pace of rate increases next year.
The Dow industrials tumbled were down over 700 points before sharply rallying in the final hour to close down about 79 points.
Assuming one can attribute a stock market move to silliness as opposed to randomness, that WSJ report fits the bill.
Technically speaking, stocks bounced off strong support.
Dow Support Levels Daily Chart
There are support levels every couple thousand points below but this is the major one.
Dow Support Levels Weekly Chart
I highly doubt this rally holds. Each time a level is tested, conviction and buyers give away. Quintuple bottom? Really?
December 2019 Rate Hike Odds
Note that the above chart displays rate hike odds for a year from now, not the December 19, 2018 meeting coming up. I am assuming a hike on December 19.
Will the Fed Hike in 2019?
Full inversion? Maybe baby, but I doubt it. A recession is on the way.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock