Redbook Retail Index Confirms Commerce Department December Retail Collapse

-edited

Some economists were in disbelief regarding the huge collapse in retail sales in December. Other indicators now confirm.

Here is a pair of Tweets on the subject.

That chart is weekly. Ideally, we need to see monthly and it wasn't posted.

Redbook

The Johnson Redbook Index is a proprietary indicator of growth in retail sales, and provides advanced estimates of trends in retail sales ahead of official releases and company reports in an easy-to-read four-page report. The weekly indicator is made public every Tuesday morning, with clients receiving notice via conference call, e-mail or fax prior to public release.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Monthly is a comprehensive report of same-store sales data reported monthly by general merchandise and apparel retailers. Analysis is given on current month sales, year-on-year, quarterly and annual sales, historical sales data and company rankings. Retailers are tracked across categories: Apparel Specialty, Books, Toy & Hobby, Department, Discount, Footwear, Furniture, Drug, Home Improvement, Home Furnishings, Electronic, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, and Miscellaneous. The Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales Index (SSI), an index of year-on-year same-store sales growth is reported in each edition.

Shockingly Weak Retail Sales

Redbook ties in with my report Shockingly Weak Retail Sales: Down 1.2% in December, Sharpest Decline Since 2009

And its not just retail sales either.

Other Confirming Indicators

  1. Autos: Surge in Auto Loan Delinquencies: Auto Loans in High Gear
  2. Credit Card Stress: Household Debt Up 18 Consecutive Quarters to a New Record, Card Stress Rising
  3. Falling Imports: Trade Deficit Shrinks in November Primarily Due to Falling Imports
  4. Industrial Production: Industrial Production Dives, Wiping Out a Strong December and Then Some

Very Recessionary

Add it all up and it looks very recessionary. And the EU is already there. Eurozone Recession: Right Here, Right Now!

There is no reason to believe the US will be immune to a global slowdown. People thought that China would decouple in 2008. It didn't. The US won't either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (15)
No. 1-13
Greggg
Greggg

The Make America Great Again fervor has tapped out the average American consumer? Imagine that!

KidHorn
KidHorn

Is that chart correct? Is it actually year over year sales increase? Because if it is, the number dropped because there's no way to maintain a YOY growth rate in excess of 9%.

Casual_Observer
Casual_Observer

There is still YoY growth. It means GDPnow from the Atlanta Fed is probably accurate.

Mish
Mish

Editor

That is weekly - Unfortunately, we do not have monthly which is what we need

Mish
Mish

Editor

I added this note: That chart is weekly. Ideally, we need to see monthly and it wasn't posted.

bradw2k
bradw2k

A long-term chart version would be interesting, overlaid with historical recessions, but I couldn't figure out their site.

RonJ
RonJ

Another failed parabolic move. Math works once again.

Ted R
Ted R

The bad thing about debt is eventually you have to pay it back or default. I would imagine many U.S. consumers are beginning to find this out the hard way.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I have to admit that I'm shocked to see retail sales still growing at 4.5% year over year in January, even during the government shutdown. That's faster than 2017, or the first half of 2018.

Greggg
Greggg

It's still on the plus side. Slower growth is better than I expected.

jivefive99
jivefive99

All the defaulted and withdrawn credit from 2008 was made re-available to the public (2010-2013ish), and we've been re-spending it ever since, with Trump taking all the credit for its re-existence. Eventually we would re-achieve maximum available credit levels of 2008, and the happy-happy would stop. I'll bet we are already there.

George_Phillies
George_Phillies

Is this the survey that does include electronic retailers?

ksdude
ksdude

But all im hearing about today is walmarts december blowout earnings.