Redbook Retail Index Confirms Commerce Department December Retail Collapse

-edited

Some economists were in disbelief regarding the huge collapse in retail sales in December. Other indicators now confirm.

Here is a pair of Tweets on the subject.

That chart is weekly. Ideally, we need to see monthly and it wasn't posted.

Redbook

The Johnson Redbook Index is a proprietary indicator of growth in retail sales, and provides advanced estimates of trends in retail sales ahead of official releases and company reports in an easy-to-read four-page report. The weekly indicator is made public every Tuesday morning, with clients receiving notice via conference call, e-mail or fax prior to public release.

The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Monthly is a comprehensive report of same-store sales data reported monthly by general merchandise and apparel retailers. Analysis is given on current month sales, year-on-year, quarterly and annual sales, historical sales data and company rankings. Retailers are tracked across categories: Apparel Specialty, Books, Toy & Hobby, Department, Discount, Footwear, Furniture, Drug, Home Improvement, Home Furnishings, Electronic, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, and Miscellaneous. The Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales Index (SSI), an index of year-on-year same-store sales growth is reported in each edition.

Shockingly Weak Retail Sales

Redbook ties in with my report Shockingly Weak Retail Sales: Down 1.2% in December, Sharpest Decline Since 2009

And its not just retail sales either.

Other Confirming Indicators

  1. Autos: Surge in Auto Loan Delinquencies: Auto Loans in High Gear
  2. Credit Card Stress: Household Debt Up 18 Consecutive Quarters to a New Record, Card Stress Rising
  3. Falling Imports: Trade Deficit Shrinks in November Primarily Due to Falling Imports
  4. Industrial Production: Industrial Production Dives, Wiping Out a Strong December and Then Some

Very Recessionary

Add it all up and it looks very recessionary. And the EU is already there. Eurozone Recession: Right Here, Right Now!

There is no reason to believe the US will be immune to a global slowdown. People thought that China would decouple in 2008. It didn't. The US won't either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments
No. 1-13
ksdude
ksdude

But all im hearing about today is walmarts december blowout earnings.

George_Phillies
George_Phillies

Is this the survey that does include electronic retailers?

jivefive99
jivefive99

All the defaulted and withdrawn credit from 2008 was made re-available to the public (2010-2013ish), and we've been re-spending it ever since, with Trump taking all the credit for its re-existence. Eventually we would re-achieve maximum available credit levels of 2008, and the happy-happy would stop. I'll bet we are already there.

Greggg
Greggg

It's still on the plus side. Slower growth is better than I expected.

Carl_R
Carl_R

I have to admit that I'm shocked to see retail sales still growing at 4.5% year over year in January, even during the government shutdown. That's faster than 2017, or the first half of 2018.