Rise of the Greens = Deindustrialization of Germany

-edited

The Green Party is on the rise in Europe. Ramifications are immense, starting with the deindustrialization of Germany.

Germany's Green party killed nuclear power. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, once a strong supporter of nuclear energy, reversed course in a nod to the Greens. It did her party, nor Germany, any good.

Diesel is dead, and rightfully so, but Germany is not prepared for it. The Greens are also after coal, GMOs, and in general big business.

These Green events coupled with a false sense of invincibility are at the center of the Demise of Deutschland and its vaunted export machine.

Germany’s once seemingly untouchable national champions – from VW and Deutsche Bank to Bayer and Wirecard – have been gripped by scandal and crisis. Business rivals are asking each other how much worse it can get for Deutschland AG.

Wolfsburg-based car maker Volkswagen is trying to move on from its 2015 diesel emissions scandal but, alongside its German rivals BMW and Mercedes-Benz owner Daimler, it could be hit with further fines by EU regulators over claims they colluded to block the development of clean air technology.

Then there’s Bavaria-based payments giant Wirecard, which has this year been hit with claims of fraud and accounting irregularities (the company has denied the allegations). And Leverkusen-based Bayer, the German chemical behemoth which acquired Monsanto for $63bn (£49.5bn) last year and now faces thousands of lawsuits over claims that Monsanto’s weed killer Roundup causes cancer.

But it is not just scandal-hit firms that are being dragged down. Last month Thyssenkrupp, the German lift company, said it would slash 6,000 jobs after abandoning plans for a merger with Tata Steel. Last week Cologne-based Lufthansa, Europe’s biggest airline, and Munich-based chipmaker Siltronic both issued profit warnings, the former squeezed by competition from low-cost rivals and rising fuel costs, and the latter hit by the US crackdown on exports to China, Germany’s major export destination.

“The issue for German companies is the over-reliance on exports which is great when global trade works [but] nowadays trade is questioned, the currency doesn’t offer incremental benefits and technological trends move away from German core skills,” says Arndt Ellinghorst, an analyst at Evercore who used to work for Volkswagen.

Green Politics

Via Eurointelligence. My additions in [ ].

The party [CDU/CSU] is torn between its traditional support for industry and the recognition that it needs to become greener. The Greens are now polling at the same level as the CDU/CSU, and even pulled ahead in some polls. CDU/CSU are no longer guaranteed to nominate the next chancellor. This new situation is beginning to have a big impact on the internal debate.

The argument is this time not between the two parties, but within the CDU. Angela Merkel and CSU-chief Horst Söder are calling for an end to coal-fired power stations by 2030 - as opposed to the previously agreed target of 2038, also the official recommendation of the coal commission. The commission was a classic stitch-up job to protect the interests of industry, and widely greeted with dismay. This has contributed to the dramatic rise in support for the Greens since February when the results were announced.

It reminds us of the most common argument against electric cars in Germany: it cannot happen because German car makers are simply not ready to mass-produce them. What those who argue in this way have not yet woken up to is that their underlying assumptions about German industrial production are going to be challenged as part of the climate policy as well. What they have not realized yet is that the targets are very easy to achieve - through less production at home.

The CDU would have been prepared for a coalition with the Greens as junior partner - as Merkel was in 2017. With the Greens as equal, let alone senior partner, this is a completely different situation. Climate targets will be to Germany what Brexit is to the UK.

Five Events

  1. Merkel foolishly did in nuclear to appease the Greens
  2. The German Car industry lied about diesel. The Greens stepped in and killed it.
  3. The Greens will kill coal.
  4. Brexit will hurt German exports no matter what happens now.
  5. Trump tariffs on German cars are likely to be the topper.

Deindustrialization of Germany

The Greens are going to force the deindustrialization of Germany.

  • They do not want coal
  • They do not want nuclear
  • They do not want diesel
  • The do not want Round-Up
  • They do not want GMOs
  • They do not want Google, Amazon, or any other large organizations
  • They do want low-skill immigration

Green Irony

The Green victory leading to the demise of nuclear forced more use of dirtier coal. Now the Greens are after coal.

Killing coal as a method of producing electricity in Germany will do two things.

  1. Force up costs
  2. Shift electrical production from German coal to even dirtier coal in nearby countries.

Latest INSA Poll

Rise of the Greens

Earlier today I commented on the Rise of the Greens and how Merkel's Coalition Partner, SPD, Vanishes Into Irrelevance.

The Greens will win. Expect a Pyrrhic victory. They will not save the planet.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Comments (30)
No. 1-12
Gasmire
Gasmire

Too bad the autobahns are unsuited for horse drawn wagons.

flubber
flubber

I've been in manufacturing for close to 50 years. I don't want to say that the general public is dumb....I will just say that they are misinformed or naïve. They have no idea what it takes to bring something to market and how our products are manufactured by industry or how our food is grown by farmers. Misinformed people want to outlaw quite a bit of stuff that makes our lives easy in comparison to our grandparents and great grandparents.

For example, they'll bash 'big oil' and have no idea that all of our plastics come from oil, many pharmaceuticals have oil bases, also many cosmetics, etc. etc. They'll say shut down big oil, shut down nuclear, shut down coal, shut down natural gas, and shut down hydro-electric dams...."we can get all power from the sun." They don't have a clue how easy our lifestyle is due to the energy we currently produce.

Let's just look at our smart phones all day long, hold hands and sing Kumbaya.

Carl_R
Carl_R

The whole thing sounds like a perfect recipe for poverty.

Stuki
Stuki

Germany just needs to get the heck out of the EU. It is simply impossible to remain an industrial and technological powerhouse, when you're stuck with a central bank dedicated to rob competent industrialists, industrial workers and technologists of all they have by way of debasement; in order to transfer the spoils to self promoting halfwits in FIRE and "legal" rackets and governments.

Since the ECB went complete idiot, post 2008, Germany has picked up the same pathologies that previously destroyed the UK and US as industrial and technological powerhouses. Most clearly demonstrated by housing prices. Just as in the Anglo countries, the wealth which productive people in industry now produces, is largely stripped away from them by debasement, in order to hand welfare, by way of "asset appreciation," to idle dunces sitting in decaying shacks cheering for government intervention. Every penny of those gains, are taken directly from the productive sectors which produced that wealth. Massively hampering their ability to innovate and add to the capital stock required to grow. Just like in the UK, US and Venezuela prior. Results of such idiocy simply cannot, ever, lead to any other outcome than decay.

If Germany ditches the EU, perhaps as a reaction to Brexit, Minibots or whatever, and have the sense to either use Gold, or at a minimum revert to a Bundesbank style, less insanely destructive, monetary policy; they'll be back in the race in no time. The rot isn't nearly as entrenched there as in the Anglo world, Just as it never really became as entrenched in Japan, due to the short duration of exposure to peak idiocy. But, conversely, the longer Germany stays in the EU, the more wealth and influence shifts to "home owners," "investors," banksters, ambulance chasers, apparatchiks and other dunces; and away from those who built, and are attempting to keep building, the industrial and technological might which the idiots are now tearing down and picking over.

caradoc-again
caradoc-again

Behind all of this is a trend few comment on - the future resurgence of France. EU members don't quite understand how French the EU will become in all matters.

Macron wants to be "Jupiter" and will manipulate to get there. EU defence, energy across border to Germany, supplant German industry and ultimately EU socialise French fiscal demands (costs of French benefits/social promises etc).

This is aided by UK parliamentary seats handed to France and the main element is the voting blocks of the indebted south. Spain, Porugal, Italy, Greece etc will all go along on the fiscal front.

Germany & Dutch tax payers are about to get screwed. In the name of EU-solidarity. Greens are perfect for this.